Recent mixed inflation and labor market data have kept trader consensus closely split on the likelihood of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, with market-implied odds for “No” edging to 53.5%. Persistent readings above the 2% target, including July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, continue to support hawkish positioning, while the softer July employment report and core inflation cooling to 2.5% have tempered expectations for tightening. The shift from earlier 2026 cut pricing to potential hikes reflects resilience in growth and energy price pressures, though the new Fed chair’s limited forward guidance adds uncertainty. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, August CPI, and employment releases, which could clarify the balance between price stability risks and labor market softening.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
47% chance
$7,549,382 Vol.
$7,549,382 Vol.
9 déc. 2026
Oui
47% chance
$7,549,382 Vol.
$7,549,382 Vol.
9 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent mixed inflation and labor market data have kept trader consensus closely split on the likelihood of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, with market-implied odds for “No” edging to 53.5%. Persistent readings above the 2% target, including July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, continue to support hawkish positioning, while the softer July employment report and core inflation cooling to 2.5% have tempered expectations for tightening. The shift from earlier 2026 cut pricing to potential hikes reflects resilience in growth and energy price pressures, though the new Fed chair’s limited forward guidance adds uncertainty. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, August CPI, and employment releases, which could clarify the balance between price stability risks and labor market softening.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$7,549,382Date de fin
9 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent mixed inflation and labor market data have kept trader consensus closely split on the likelihood of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, with market-implied odds for “No” edging to 53.5%. Persistent readings above the 2% target, including July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, continue to support hawkish positioning, while the softer July employment report and core inflation cooling to 2.5% have tempered expectations for tightening. The shift from earlier 2026 cut pricing to potential hikes reflects resilience in growth and energy price pressures, though the new Fed chair’s limited forward guidance adds uncertainty. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, August CPI, and employment releases, which could clarify the balance between price stability risks and labor market softening.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,549,407Date de fin
9 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent mixed inflation and labor market data have kept trader consensus closely split on the likelihood of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, with market-implied odds for “No” edging to 53.5%. Persistent readings above the 2% target, including July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, continue to support hawkish positioning, while the softer July employment report and core inflation cooling to 2.5% have tempered expectations for tightening. The shift from earlier 2026 cut pricing to potential hikes reflects resilience in growth and energy price pressures, though the new Fed chair’s limited forward guidance adds uncertainty. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, August CPI, and employment releases, which could clarify the balance between price stability risks and labor market softening.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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