Latest National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco International Airport (KSFO)—the market's resolution source—project a daytime high near 66°F on May 14, fueling the 57.5% implied probability for 66°F or higher and 31.5% for 64-65°F as traders weigh model consensus against marine layer persistence. Persistent westerly winds of 15-25 mph will advect cool Pacific air, capping temperatures amid partial afternoon clearing, consistent with May climatology where SFO averages 67°F highs but often sees fog-delayed warming. Recent 24-hour updates from NOAA ensembles show minimal shifts from prior runs, with low outbreak risk for 70°F+ due to strong onshore flow; historical analogs support this range amid neutral ENSO conditions. Hourly observations beginning early May 14 will drive final positioning as the market resolves by midnight.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in San Francisco on May 14?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on May 14?
66°F or higher 53%
64-65°F 35%
62-63°F 12.1%
60-61°F 3.0%
NOUVEAU
$15,249 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$15,249 Vol.
14 mai 2026
47°F or below
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
<1%
54-55°F
<1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
3%
62-63°F
12%
64-65°F
35%
66°F or higher
53%
66°F or higher 53%
64-65°F 35%
62-63°F 12.1%
60-61°F 3.0%
NOUVEAU
$15,249 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$15,249 Vol.
14 mai 2026
47°F or below
$671 Vol.
<1%
48-49°F
$658 Vol.
<1%
50-51°F
$1,067 Vol.
<1%
52-53°F
$1,263 Vol.
<1%
54-55°F
$1,811 Vol.
<1%
56-57°F
$1,339 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$955 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$1,288 Vol.
3%
62-63°F
$1,956 Vol.
12%
64-65°F
$2,089 Vol.
35%
66°F or higher
$2,376 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco International Airport (KSFO)—the market's resolution source—project a daytime high near 66°F on May 14, fueling the 57.5% implied probability for 66°F or higher and 31.5% for 64-65°F as traders weigh model consensus against marine layer persistence. Persistent westerly winds of 15-25 mph will advect cool Pacific air, capping temperatures amid partial afternoon clearing, consistent with May climatology where SFO averages 67°F highs but often sees fog-delayed warming. Recent 24-hour updates from NOAA ensembles show minimal shifts from prior runs, with low outbreak risk for 70°F+ due to strong onshore flow; historical analogs support this range amid neutral ENSO conditions. Hourly observations beginning early May 14 will drive final positioning as the market resolves by midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 12, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$15,249Date de fin
14 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 12, 2026, 12:08 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco International Airport (KSFO)—the market's resolution source—project a daytime high near 66°F on May 14, fueling the 57.5% implied probability for 66°F or higher and 31.5% for 64-65°F as traders weigh model consensus against marine layer persistence. Persistent westerly winds of 15-25 mph will advect cool Pacific air, capping temperatures amid partial afternoon clearing, consistent with May climatology where SFO averages 67°F highs but often sees fog-delayed warming. Recent 24-hour updates from NOAA ensembles show minimal shifts from prior runs, with low outbreak risk for 70°F+ due to strong onshore flow; historical analogs support this range amid neutral ENSO conditions. Hourly observations beginning early May 14 will drive final positioning as the market resolves by midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$15,249Date de fin
14 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 12, 2026, 12:08 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco International Airport (KSFO)—the market's resolution source—project a daytime high near 66°F on May 14, fueling the 57.5% implied probability for 66°F or higher and 31.5% for 64-65°F as traders weigh model consensus against marine layer persistence. Persistent westerly winds of 15-25 mph will advect cool Pacific air, capping temperatures amid partial afternoon clearing, consistent with May climatology where SFO averages 67°F highs but often sees fog-delayed warming. Recent 24-hour updates from NOAA ensembles show minimal shifts from prior runs, with low outbreak risk for 70°F+ due to strong onshore flow; historical analogs support this range amid neutral ENSO conditions. Hourly observations beginning early May 14 will drive final positioning as the market resolves by midnight.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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