Current forecast guidance from agencies including the Met Office and NIWA points to a daily maximum near 15°C in Wellington on June 15, supporting the near-even trader consensus between the 16°C (43%) and 17°C (44.5%) outcomes. Mid-winter climatology favors highs of 12–13°C, but transient northerly airflow off the Tasman Sea can enhance warm advection and elevate readings by 2–4°C, creating the narrow spread in implied probabilities. Model runs show limited disagreement on cloud cover and wind strength through the afternoon peak, with any strengthening sea breeze or increased insolation potentially pushing the official maximum into the upper range. Updated short-range guidance expected in the next 12–24 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Wellington on June 15?
Highest temperature in Wellington on June 15?
17°C 46%
16°C 44%
18°C 5%
15°C 4.0%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
15 juin 2026
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
4%
16°C
44%
17°C
46%
18°C
5%
19°C
1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
17°C 46%
16°C 44%
18°C 5%
15°C 4.0%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
15 juin 2026
11°C or below
$117 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$205 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$865 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$286 Vol.
1%
15°C
$922 Vol.
4%
16°C
$377 Vol.
44%
17°C
$1,158 Vol.
46%
18°C
$485 Vol.
5%
19°C
$623 Vol.
1%
20°C
$547 Vol.
<1%
21°C or higher
$352 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast guidance from agencies including the Met Office and NIWA points to a daily maximum near 15°C in Wellington on June 15, supporting the near-even trader consensus between the 16°C (43%) and 17°C (44.5%) outcomes. Mid-winter climatology favors highs of 12–13°C, but transient northerly airflow off the Tasman Sea can enhance warm advection and elevate readings by 2–4°C, creating the narrow spread in implied probabilities. Model runs show limited disagreement on cloud cover and wind strength through the afternoon peak, with any strengthening sea breeze or increased insolation potentially pushing the official maximum into the upper range. Updated short-range guidance expected in the next 12–24 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jun 13, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volume
$5,937Date de fin
15 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 13, 2026, 12:18 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast guidance from agencies including the Met Office and NIWA points to a daily maximum near 15°C in Wellington on June 15, supporting the near-even trader consensus between the 16°C (43%) and 17°C (44.5%) outcomes. Mid-winter climatology favors highs of 12–13°C, but transient northerly airflow off the Tasman Sea can enhance warm advection and elevate readings by 2–4°C, creating the narrow spread in implied probabilities. Model runs show limited disagreement on cloud cover and wind strength through the afternoon peak, with any strengthening sea breeze or increased insolation potentially pushing the official maximum into the upper range. Updated short-range guidance expected in the next 12–24 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,937Date de fin
15 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 13, 2026, 12:18 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast guidance from agencies including the Met Office and NIWA points to a daily maximum near 15°C in Wellington on June 15, supporting the near-even trader consensus between the 16°C (43%) and 17°C (44.5%) outcomes. Mid-winter climatology favors highs of 12–13°C, but transient northerly airflow off the Tasman Sea can enhance warm advection and elevate readings by 2–4°C, creating the narrow spread in implied probabilities. Model runs show limited disagreement on cloud cover and wind strength through the afternoon peak, with any strengthening sea breeze or increased insolation potentially pushing the official maximum into the upper range. Updated short-range guidance expected in the next 12–24 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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