**Persistent multi-year drought across the Colorado River Basin, with below-average snowpack, precipitation, and spring runoff, continues to limit inflows to Lake Powell and downstream Lake Mead while high agricultural and municipal demand plus elevated evaporation sustain net losses.** As of August 29, 2026, Lake Mead stands at 1,038.87 ft (26% full), at or near its lowest level since the 1930s, with a 0.44 ft drop over the prior week and 16.5 ft lower than one year earlier. U.S. Bureau of Reclamation’s July 2026 24-Month Study projects a most-probable elevation of 1,037.31 ft by December 31, 2026 under current operating rules and reduced releases, with probable-minimum scenarios substantially lower. These conditions, reinforced by ongoing shortage tiers and conservation measures that have not reversed the decline, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 55.5% implied probability for levels below 1,028 ft. Updated August forecasts and winter 2026–27 snowpack data will provide the next key inputs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourÀ quel point le niveau du lac Mead va-t-il baisser ?
À quel point le niveau du lac Mead va-t-il baisser ?
En dessous de 1 028 pieds 56%
1 028–1 033 pieds 30.3%
1 033–1 038 pieds 6.2%
Au-dessus de 1 038 pieds 6%
$15,163 Vol.
$15,163 Vol.
15 avr. 2027
Au-dessus de 1 038 pieds
6%
1 033–1 038 pieds
6%
1 028–1 033 pieds
30%
En dessous de 1 028 pieds
56%
En dessous de 1 028 pieds 56%
1 028–1 033 pieds 30.3%
1 033–1 038 pieds 6.2%
Au-dessus de 1 038 pieds 6%
$15,163 Vol.
$15,163 Vol.
15 avr. 2027
Au-dessus de 1 038 pieds
$3,858 Vol.
6%
1 033–1 038 pieds
$1,947 Vol.
6%
1 028–1 033 pieds
$2,076 Vol.
30%
En dessous de 1 028 pieds
$7,282 Vol.
56%
This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 does not fall below 1,038.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No."
Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.
The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 1,038.00 feet but does not fall below 1,033.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No."
Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.
The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 1,033.00 feet but does not fall below 1,028.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No."
Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.
The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 1,028.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." For reference, 1,025 feet is the threshold below which the Lower Colorado River Basin enters its most severe declared shortage tier (Tier 3).
Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.
The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.**Persistent multi-year drought across the Colorado River Basin, with below-average snowpack, precipitation, and spring runoff, continues to limit inflows to Lake Powell and downstream Lake Mead while high agricultural and municipal demand plus elevated evaporation sustain net losses.** As of August 29, 2026, Lake Mead stands at 1,038.87 ft (26% full), at or near its lowest level since the 1930s, with a 0.44 ft drop over the prior week and 16.5 ft lower than one year earlier. U.S. Bureau of Reclamation’s July 2026 24-Month Study projects a most-probable elevation of 1,037.31 ft by December 31, 2026 under current operating rules and reduced releases, with probable-minimum scenarios substantially lower. These conditions, reinforced by ongoing shortage tiers and conservation measures that have not reversed the decline, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 55.5% implied probability for levels below 1,028 ft. Updated August forecasts and winter 2026–27 snowpack data will provide the next key inputs.
This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 does not fall below 1,038.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No."
Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.
The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.
Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.
The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.
Marché ouvert : Aug 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$15,163Date de fin
15 avr. 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETSource de résolution
https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 does not fall below 1,038.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No."
Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.
The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 1,038.00 feet but does not fall below 1,033.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No."
Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.
The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 1,033.00 feet but does not fall below 1,028.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No."
Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.
The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 1,028.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." For reference, 1,025 feet is the threshold below which the Lower Colorado River Basin enters its most severe declared shortage tier (Tier 3).
Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.
The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.**Persistent multi-year drought across the Colorado River Basin, with below-average snowpack, precipitation, and spring runoff, continues to limit inflows to Lake Powell and downstream Lake Mead while high agricultural and municipal demand plus elevated evaporation sustain net losses.** As of August 29, 2026, Lake Mead stands at 1,038.87 ft (26% full), at or near its lowest level since the 1930s, with a 0.44 ft drop over the prior week and 16.5 ft lower than one year earlier. U.S. Bureau of Reclamation’s July 2026 24-Month Study projects a most-probable elevation of 1,037.31 ft by December 31, 2026 under current operating rules and reduced releases, with probable-minimum scenarios substantially lower. These conditions, reinforced by ongoing shortage tiers and conservation measures that have not reversed the decline, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 55.5% implied probability for levels below 1,028 ft. Updated August forecasts and winter 2026–27 snowpack data will provide the next key inputs.
This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 does not fall below 1,038.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No."
Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.
The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.
Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window.
The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.
Volume
$15,163Date de fin
15 avr. 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETSource de résolution
https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent multi-year drought across the Colorado River Basin, with below-average snowpack, precipitation, and spring runoff, continues to limit inflows to Lake Powell and downstream Lake Mead while high agricultural and municipal demand plus elevated evaporation sustain net losses.** As of August 29, 2026, Lake Mead stands at 1,038.87 ft (26% full), at or near its lowest level since the 1930s, with a 0.44 ft drop over the prior week and 16.5 ft lower than one year earlier. U.S. Bureau of Reclamation’s July 2026 24-Month Study projects a most-probable elevation of 1,037.31 ft by December 31, 2026 under current operating rules and reduced releases, with probable-minimum scenarios substantially lower. These conditions, reinforced by ongoing shortage tiers and conservation measures that have not reversed the decline, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 55.5% implied probability for levels below 1,028 ft. Updated August forecasts and winter 2026–27 snowpack data will provide the next key inputs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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