Recent USGS monitoring data confirm exactly three magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide during the August 10–16 window, aligning with the market’s 92.5% implied probability for that outcome. Confirmed events include the M7.4 Colombia quake on August 10 at ~110 km depth in the subduction zone and the M7.7 offshore Indonesia event on August 14, consistent with typical weekly clustering along active plate boundaries and the global background rate of 15–20 such quakes annually. Traders have priced in near-certainty based on final observational records, with only minimal probability assigned to additional shocks. A late aftershock sequence or an unrelated M6.5+ event along the Pacific Ring of Fire could still elevate the total to four, though current seismic catalogs show no such developments.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de tremblements de terre de 6,5 ou plus du 10 août au 16 août ?
Combien de tremblements de terre de 6,5 ou plus du 10 août au 16 août ?
3 90.1%
4 <1%
0 <1%
1 <1%
$35,611 Vol.
$35,611 Vol.
10 août 2026
0
<1%
1
<1%
2
<1%
3
92%
4
1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
3 90.1%
4 <1%
0 <1%
1 <1%
$35,611 Vol.
$35,611 Vol.
10 août 2026
0
$11,993 Vol.
<1%
1
$6,814 Vol.
<1%
2
$6,885 Vol.
<1%
3
$4,627 Vol.
92%
4
$1,522 Vol.
1%
5
$1,040 Vol.
<1%
>5
$2,731 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent USGS monitoring data confirm exactly three magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide during the August 10–16 window, aligning with the market’s 92.5% implied probability for that outcome. Confirmed events include the M7.4 Colombia quake on August 10 at ~110 km depth in the subduction zone and the M7.7 offshore Indonesia event on August 14, consistent with typical weekly clustering along active plate boundaries and the global background rate of 15–20 such quakes annually. Traders have priced in near-certainty based on final observational records, with only minimal probability assigned to additional shocks. A late aftershock sequence or an unrelated M6.5+ event along the Pacific Ring of Fire could still elevate the total to four, though current seismic catalogs show no such developments.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Marché ouvert : Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ET
Volume
$35,611Date de fin
17 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETSource de résolution
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent USGS monitoring data confirm exactly three magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide during the August 10–16 window, aligning with the market’s 92.5% implied probability for that outcome. Confirmed events include the M7.4 Colombia quake on August 10 at ~110 km depth in the subduction zone and the M7.7 offshore Indonesia event on August 14, consistent with typical weekly clustering along active plate boundaries and the global background rate of 15–20 such quakes annually. Traders have priced in near-certainty based on final observational records, with only minimal probability assigned to additional shocks. A late aftershock sequence or an unrelated M6.5+ event along the Pacific Ring of Fire could still elevate the total to four, though current seismic catalogs show no such developments.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$35,611Date de fin
17 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETSource de résolution
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent USGS monitoring data confirm exactly three magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide during the August 10–16 window, aligning with the market’s 92.5% implied probability for that outcome. Confirmed events include the M7.4 Colombia quake on August 10 at ~110 km depth in the subduction zone and the M7.7 offshore Indonesia event on August 14, consistent with typical weekly clustering along active plate boundaries and the global background rate of 15–20 such quakes annually. Traders have priced in near-certainty based on final observational records, with only minimal probability assigned to additional shocks. A late aftershock sequence or an unrelated M6.5+ event along the Pacific Ring of Fire could still elevate the total to four, though current seismic catalogs show no such developments.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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