Elevated inflation from higher energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions has driven trader consensus toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 at a 70.5% market-implied probability. Strong labor market conditions and resilient economic data have reduced the urgency for monetary policy easing, prompting major brokerages including BofA and Goldman Sachs to push back expected cuts into late 2026 or 2027. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50%-3.75%, recent FOMC communications emphasize data dependence and caution on inflation risks. Key upcoming catalysts include May CPI and employment reports, which could shift rate path expectations if they reveal sustained price pressures or labor market softening.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ?
Combien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ?
0 (0 bps) 70.4%
1 (25 bps) 16%
2 (50 pb) 7%
3 (75 points de base) 2.7%
$26,873,851 Vol.
$26,873,851 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
0 (0 bps)
70%
1 (25 bps)
16%
2 (50 pb)
7%
3 (75 points de base)
3%
4 (100 pb)
1%
5 (125 pb)
1%
6 (150 points de base)
1%
7 (175 points de base)
<1%
8 (200 points de base)
<1%
9 (225 points de base)
<1%
10 (250 pb)
<1%
11 (275 points de base)
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
1%
0 (0 bps) 70.4%
1 (25 bps) 16%
2 (50 pb) 7%
3 (75 points de base) 2.7%
$26,873,851 Vol.
$26,873,851 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
0 (0 bps)
$4,187,263 Vol.
70%
1 (25 bps)
$1,244,476 Vol.
16%
2 (50 pb)
$1,203,687 Vol.
7%
3 (75 points de base)
$1,113,761 Vol.
3%
4 (100 pb)
$1,194,718 Vol.
1%
5 (125 pb)
$1,415,585 Vol.
1%
6 (150 points de base)
$2,484,316 Vol.
1%
7 (175 points de base)
$1,322,126 Vol.
<1%
8 (200 points de base)
$1,726,939 Vol.
<1%
9 (225 points de base)
$2,449,427 Vol.
<1%
10 (250 pb)
$3,115,576 Vol.
<1%
11 (275 points de base)
$3,266,345 Vol.
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
$2,151,152 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation from higher energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions has driven trader consensus toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 at a 70.5% market-implied probability. Strong labor market conditions and resilient economic data have reduced the urgency for monetary policy easing, prompting major brokerages including BofA and Goldman Sachs to push back expected cuts into late 2026 or 2027. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50%-3.75%, recent FOMC communications emphasize data dependence and caution on inflation risks. Key upcoming catalysts include May CPI and employment reports, which could shift rate path expectations if they reveal sustained price pressures or labor market softening.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Marché ouvert : Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$26,873,851Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation from higher energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions has driven trader consensus toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 at a 70.5% market-implied probability. Strong labor market conditions and resilient economic data have reduced the urgency for monetary policy easing, prompting major brokerages including BofA and Goldman Sachs to push back expected cuts into late 2026 or 2027. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50%-3.75%, recent FOMC communications emphasize data dependence and caution on inflation risks. Key upcoming catalysts include May CPI and employment reports, which could shift rate path expectations if they reveal sustained price pressures or labor market softening.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$26,873,851Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated inflation from higher energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions has driven trader consensus toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 at a 70.5% market-implied probability. Strong labor market conditions and resilient economic data have reduced the urgency for monetary policy easing, prompting major brokerages including BofA and Goldman Sachs to push back expected cuts into late 2026 or 2027. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50%-3.75%, recent FOMC communications emphasize data dependence and caution on inflation risks. Key upcoming catalysts include May CPI and employment reports, which could shift rate path expectations if they reveal sustained price pressures or labor market softening.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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