Skip to main content
icon for Combien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ?
Économie·Entreprise

Combien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ?

icon for Combien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ?
Économie·Entreprise

Combien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ?

0 (0 bps) 70.2%

1 (25 bps) 16%

2 (50 pb) 7%

3 (75 points de base) 2.5%

Polymarket

$26,940,124 Vol.

0 (0 bps) 70.2%

1 (25 bps) 16%

2 (50 pb) 7%

3 (75 points de base) 2.5%

Polymarket

$26,940,124 Vol.

0 (0 bps)

$4,189,200 Vol.

70%

1 (25 bps)

$1,245,187 Vol.

16%

2 (50 pb)

$1,204,668 Vol.

7%

3 (75 points de base)

$1,114,221 Vol.

3%

4 (100 pb)

$1,196,865 Vol.

1%

5 (125 pb)

$1,418,709 Vol.

1%

6 (150 points de base)

$2,491,185 Vol.

1%

7 (175 points de base)

$1,324,583 Vol.

<1%

8 (200 points de base)

$1,734,857 Vol.

<1%

9 (225 points de base)

$2,455,728 Vol.

<1%

10 (250 pb)

$3,124,186 Vol.

<1%

11 (275 points de base)

$3,275,046 Vol.

<1%

12+ (300+ bps)

$2,166,128 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including the Iran conflict, have driven energy prices higher and pushed March 2026 CPI inflation to 3.3 percent, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75 percent through its latest meetings. This environment has led trader consensus on Polymarket to assign a 70.3 percent implied probability to zero rate cuts for the remainder of 2026, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing near 71.5 percent for no easing this year. Major brokerages including Bank of America now forecast the first cut no earlier than mid-2027, citing resilient labor market conditions and elevated inflation risks that outweigh growth concerns. Upcoming FOMC decisions and labor market releases will remain key swing factors for any shift in these probabilities.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$26,940,124
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including the Iran conflict, have driven energy prices higher and pushed March 2026 CPI inflation to 3.3 percent, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75 percent through its latest meetings. This environment has led trader consensus on Polymarket to assign a 70.3 percent implied probability to zero rate cuts for the remainder of 2026, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing near 71.5 percent for no easing this year. Major brokerages including Bank of America now forecast the first cut no earlier than mid-2027, citing resilient labor market conditions and elevated inflation risks that outweigh growth concerns. Upcoming FOMC decisions and labor market releases will remain key swing factors for any shift in these probabilities.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$26,940,124
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Combien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 13 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 0 (0 bps) » à 70%, suivi de « 1 (25 bps) » à 16%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 70¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 70% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Combien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ? » a généré $26.9 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Sep 29, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Combien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ? », parcourez les 13 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Combien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ? » est « 0 (0 bps) » à 70%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 70% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 1 (25 bps) » à 16%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Combien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.