North Carolina’s Republican-controlled legislature enacted a new congressional map in October 2025 that shifts several GOP-leaning counties into the 1st District, aiming to convert the lone competitive seat held by Democrat Don Davis into a safer Republican district and produce an 11-3 statewide split. With all four Democratic incumbents and ten Republicans running in March primaries, the resulting lines leave three districts as clear Democratic holds while positioning one or two others as potential swing seats. National midterm dynamics favoring the out-party, combined with the recent August retirement announcement in the Republican-held 11th District, have kept trader pricing centered on three-to-five Democratic wins. The 39% probability on five seats reflects crowd assessments that local turnout or broader anti-incumbent sentiment could still overcome the map’s structural tilt in a limited number of battlegrounds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour5 39%
3 25%
4 24%
6+ 15.2%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
<3
1%
3
25%
4
24%
5
39%
6+
15%
5 39%
3 25%
4 24%
6+ 15.2%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
<3
$185 Vol.
1%
3
$212 Vol.
25%
4
$452 Vol.
24%
5
$1,813 Vol.
39%
6+
$184 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in North Carolina in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.North Carolina’s Republican-controlled legislature enacted a new congressional map in October 2025 that shifts several GOP-leaning counties into the 1st District, aiming to convert the lone competitive seat held by Democrat Don Davis into a safer Republican district and produce an 11-3 statewide split. With all four Democratic incumbents and ten Republicans running in March primaries, the resulting lines leave three districts as clear Democratic holds while positioning one or two others as potential swing seats. National midterm dynamics favoring the out-party, combined with the recent August retirement announcement in the Republican-held 11th District, have kept trader pricing centered on three-to-five Democratic wins. The 39% probability on five seats reflects crowd assessments that local turnout or broader anti-incumbent sentiment could still overcome the map’s structural tilt in a limited number of battlegrounds.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in North Carolina in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Aug 11, 2026, 10:10 AM ET
Volume
$2,847Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 11, 2026, 10:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in North Carolina in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.North Carolina’s Republican-controlled legislature enacted a new congressional map in October 2025 that shifts several GOP-leaning counties into the 1st District, aiming to convert the lone competitive seat held by Democrat Don Davis into a safer Republican district and produce an 11-3 statewide split. With all four Democratic incumbents and ten Republicans running in March primaries, the resulting lines leave three districts as clear Democratic holds while positioning one or two others as potential swing seats. National midterm dynamics favoring the out-party, combined with the recent August retirement announcement in the Republican-held 11th District, have kept trader pricing centered on three-to-five Democratic wins. The 39% probability on five seats reflects crowd assessments that local turnout or broader anti-incumbent sentiment could still overcome the map’s structural tilt in a limited number of battlegrounds.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in North Carolina in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,847Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 11, 2026, 10:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...North Carolina’s Republican-controlled legislature enacted a new congressional map in October 2025 that shifts several GOP-leaning counties into the 1st District, aiming to convert the lone competitive seat held by Democrat Don Davis into a safer Republican district and produce an 11-3 statewide split. With all four Democratic incumbents and ten Republicans running in March primaries, the resulting lines leave three districts as clear Democratic holds while positioning one or two others as potential swing seats. National midterm dynamics favoring the out-party, combined with the recent August retirement announcement in the Republican-held 11th District, have kept trader pricing centered on three-to-five Democratic wins. The 39% probability on five seats reflects crowd assessments that local turnout or broader anti-incumbent sentiment could still overcome the map’s structural tilt in a limited number of battlegrounds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Les démocrates remporteront-ils exactement 8 sièges à la Chambre des représentants en Virginie lors des élections de mi-mandat de 2026 ?
33%
Oui
Les démocrates vont-ils gagner exactement 1 siège à la Chambre en Caroline du Sud lors des élections de mi-mandat de 2026 ?
71%
Oui
Les démocrates remporteront-ils exactement 3 sièges à la Chambre au Nevada lors des élections de mi-mandat de 2026 ?
60%
Oui
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes