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icon for Combien de membres de la Chambre républicaine ne se sont pas présentés en 2026 ?
Politique·Élection Américaine

Combien de membres de la Chambre républicaine ne se sont pas présentés en 2026 ?

icon for Combien de membres de la Chambre républicaine ne se sont pas présentés en 2026 ?
Politique·Élection Américaine

Combien de membres de la Chambre républicaine ne se sont pas présentés en 2026 ?

36–39 70.4%

32–35 13.1%

40–43 5.1%

24–27 1.9%

Polymarket

$63,503 Vol.

36–39 70.4%

32–35 13.1%

40–43 5.1%

24–27 1.9%

Polymarket

$63,503 Vol.

<24

$5,984 Vol.

1%

24–27

$19,738 Vol.

2%

28–31

$23,241 Vol.

1%

32–35

$5,217 Vol.

13%

36–39

$3,400 Vol.

70%

40–43

$2,683 Vol.

5%

44+

$3,240 Vol.

<1%

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**As of mid-June 2026, 36 Republican House members have announced they will not seek re-election, placing the count squarely in the leading 36–39 bin that traders favor at 65.1%.** This total reflects a record pace of departures for the party in power during a midterm cycle, driven by members pursuing Senate seats, governorships, or full retirement amid institutional frustrations, slim majorities, and the typical headwinds facing the president’s party. Multiple sources, including Ballotpedia and Wikipedia compilations updated through June 13, confirm the 36-Republican figure out of 58 total House departures. Recent announcements have been steady but not explosive in the past month, with several tied to state-level races or personal decisions rather than late surprises. Additional exits remain possible before filing deadlines and primaries conclude, which keeps the 32–35 (18.3%) and 40–43 (5.8%) ranges as secondary possibilities, while lower or much higher bins reflect limited trader expectations for major shifts.

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.

For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)

Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.

This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$63,503
Date de fin
31 août 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**As of mid-June 2026, 36 Republican House members have announced they will not seek re-election, placing the count squarely in the leading 36–39 bin that traders favor at 65.1%.** This total reflects a record pace of departures for the party in power during a midterm cycle, driven by members pursuing Senate seats, governorships, or full retirement amid institutional frustrations, slim majorities, and the typical headwinds facing the president’s party. Multiple sources, including Ballotpedia and Wikipedia compilations updated through June 13, confirm the 36-Republican figure out of 58 total House departures. Recent announcements have been steady but not explosive in the past month, with several tied to state-level races or personal decisions rather than late surprises. Additional exits remain possible before filing deadlines and primaries conclude, which keeps the 32–35 (18.3%) and 40–43 (5.8%) ranges as secondary possibilities, while lower or much higher bins reflect limited trader expectations for major shifts.

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.

For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)

Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.

This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$63,503
Date de fin
31 août 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Questions fréquentes

« Combien de membres de la Chambre républicaine ne se sont pas présentés en 2026 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 7 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 36–39 » à 70%, suivi de « 32–35 » à 13%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 70¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 70% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Combien de membres de la Chambre républicaine ne se sont pas présentés en 2026 ? » a généré $63.5K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Dec 12, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Combien de membres de la Chambre républicaine ne se sont pas présentés en 2026 ? », parcourez les 7 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Combien de membres de la Chambre républicaine ne se sont pas présentés en 2026 ? » est « 36–39 » à 70%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 70% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 32–35 » à 13%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Combien de membres de la Chambre républicaine ne se sont pas présentés en 2026 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.