Robert Luna holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Los Angeles County sheriff race, reflecting his status as incumbent and strong primary performance where he secured 44.2% to advance to the November 3 runoff against former sheriff Alex Villanueva. Traders see Luna’s broad endorsements from county supervisors, labor groups, and law enforcement associations, combined with reported declines in violent crime and homicides during his term, as key drivers of his position. The race reprises their 2022 contest, which Luna won by a wide margin. Villanueva’s campaign has focused on departmental retention and operations issues, yet remains far behind in implied probability. Late developments such as major scandals, sharp reversals in public safety metrics, or unusually high turnout among specific voting blocs could still narrow the gap before the general election.