Recent El Niño development and above-average sea surface temperatures in the Northwest Pacific have fueled an active 2026 typhoon season, with four confirmed landfalls in China (Maysak, Bavi, Noul, Dolphin) through mid-August already exceeding early benchmarks. National Climate Center outlooks project 24–26 total formations and 7–9 China landfalls, driven by westward-shifted tracks and enhanced intensification potential under the Saffir-Simpson framework. Trader consensus around 7–8 or greater reflects uncertainty in remaining peak-season steering patterns and late-season decay rates, while lower outcomes would require rapid subsidence of activity or atypical recurvature before November. Updated model runs and official monitoring through October will refine these probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de cyclones tropicaux toucheront terre en Chine en 2026 ?
Combien de cyclones tropicaux toucheront terre en Chine en 2026 ?
7 23%
6 22%
5 18%
8 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 juin 2027
Moins de 5
4%
5
18%
6
19%
7
29%
8
26%
Plus de 8
27%
7 23%
6 22%
5 18%
8 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 juin 2027
Moins de 5
$332 Vol.
4%
5
$2,006 Vol.
18%
6
$572 Vol.
19%
7
$306 Vol.
29%
8
$187 Vol.
26%
Plus de 8
$276 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Recent El Niño development and above-average sea surface temperatures in the Northwest Pacific have fueled an active 2026 typhoon season, with four confirmed landfalls in China (Maysak, Bavi, Noul, Dolphin) through mid-August already exceeding early benchmarks. National Climate Center outlooks project 24–26 total formations and 7–9 China landfalls, driven by westward-shifted tracks and enhanced intensification potential under the Saffir-Simpson framework. Trader consensus around 7–8 or greater reflects uncertainty in remaining peak-season steering patterns and late-season decay rates, while lower outcomes would require rapid subsidence of activity or atypical recurvature before November. Updated model runs and official monitoring through October will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Marché ouvert : Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$3,680Date de fin
30 juin 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETSource de résolution
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Recent El Niño development and above-average sea surface temperatures in the Northwest Pacific have fueled an active 2026 typhoon season, with four confirmed landfalls in China (Maysak, Bavi, Noul, Dolphin) through mid-August already exceeding early benchmarks. National Climate Center outlooks project 24–26 total formations and 7–9 China landfalls, driven by westward-shifted tracks and enhanced intensification potential under the Saffir-Simpson framework. Trader consensus around 7–8 or greater reflects uncertainty in remaining peak-season steering patterns and late-season decay rates, while lower outcomes would require rapid subsidence of activity or atypical recurvature before November. Updated model runs and official monitoring through October will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Volume
$3,680Date de fin
30 juin 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETSource de résolution
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent El Niño development and above-average sea surface temperatures in the Northwest Pacific have fueled an active 2026 typhoon season, with four confirmed landfalls in China (Maysak, Bavi, Noul, Dolphin) through mid-August already exceeding early benchmarks. National Climate Center outlooks project 24–26 total formations and 7–9 China landfalls, driven by westward-shifted tracks and enhanced intensification potential under the Saffir-Simpson framework. Trader consensus around 7–8 or greater reflects uncertainty in remaining peak-season steering patterns and late-season decay rates, while lower outcomes would require rapid subsidence of activity or atypical recurvature before November. Updated model runs and official monitoring through October will refine these probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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