Private sector forecasts for Japan's Q1 2026 GDP cluster tightly around 0.4–0.5% quarter-on-quarter growth, reflecting resilient exports, steady private consumption, and firm capital spending amid limited immediate fallout from Middle East tensions. This positioning keeps the 0.3–0.5% and 0.6–0.8% buckets nearly tied in trader-implied odds, with the outcome hinging on whether final data revisions or inventory adjustments push the print above or below the 0.55% midpoint. Bank of Japan communications highlight moderating corporate profits and real incomes from higher energy costs, yet accommodative financial conditions continue to support domestic demand. The Cabinet Office preliminary release on May 19 remains the decisive catalyst that could shift sentiment toward either range.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour0,3–0,5 % 50.5%
0,0–0,2 % 6.7%
-0,3– -0,1 % 4.1%
1,2 %+ 2.2%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
19 mai 2026
≤-0,4 %
1%
-0,3– -0,1 %
4%
0,0–0,2 %
7%
0,3–0,5 %
51%
0,6–0,8 %
44%
0,9–1,1 %
31%
1,2 %+
2%
0,3–0,5 % 50.5%
0,0–0,2 % 6.7%
-0,3– -0,1 % 4.1%
1,2 %+ 2.2%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
19 mai 2026
≤-0,4 %
$1,275 Vol.
1%
-0,3– -0,1 %
$1,204 Vol.
4%
0,0–0,2 %
$1,315 Vol.
7%
0,3–0,5 %
$868 Vol.
51%
0,6–0,8 %
$517 Vol.
44%
0,9–1,1 %
$750 Vol.
31%
1,2 %+
$3,333 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlPrivate sector forecasts for Japan's Q1 2026 GDP cluster tightly around 0.4–0.5% quarter-on-quarter growth, reflecting resilient exports, steady private consumption, and firm capital spending amid limited immediate fallout from Middle East tensions. This positioning keeps the 0.3–0.5% and 0.6–0.8% buckets nearly tied in trader-implied odds, with the outcome hinging on whether final data revisions or inventory adjustments push the print above or below the 0.55% midpoint. Bank of Japan communications highlight moderating corporate profits and real incomes from higher energy costs, yet accommodative financial conditions continue to support domestic demand. The Cabinet Office preliminary release on May 19 remains the decisive catalyst that could shift sentiment toward either range.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Marché ouvert : Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$9,262Date de fin
19 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlPrivate sector forecasts for Japan's Q1 2026 GDP cluster tightly around 0.4–0.5% quarter-on-quarter growth, reflecting resilient exports, steady private consumption, and firm capital spending amid limited immediate fallout from Middle East tensions. This positioning keeps the 0.3–0.5% and 0.6–0.8% buckets nearly tied in trader-implied odds, with the outcome hinging on whether final data revisions or inventory adjustments push the print above or below the 0.55% midpoint. Bank of Japan communications highlight moderating corporate profits and real incomes from higher energy costs, yet accommodative financial conditions continue to support domestic demand. The Cabinet Office preliminary release on May 19 remains the decisive catalyst that could shift sentiment toward either range.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volume
$9,262Date de fin
19 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Private sector forecasts for Japan's Q1 2026 GDP cluster tightly around 0.4–0.5% quarter-on-quarter growth, reflecting resilient exports, steady private consumption, and firm capital spending amid limited immediate fallout from Middle East tensions. This positioning keeps the 0.3–0.5% and 0.6–0.8% buckets nearly tied in trader-implied odds, with the outcome hinging on whether final data revisions or inventory adjustments push the print above or below the 0.55% midpoint. Bank of Japan communications highlight moderating corporate profits and real incomes from higher energy costs, yet accommodative financial conditions continue to support domestic demand. The Cabinet Office preliminary release on May 19 remains the decisive catalyst that could shift sentiment toward either range.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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