Traders are pricing Japan’s Q1 2026 GDP growth most heavily toward the 0.3–0.5% range, reflecting consensus forecasts that cluster near 0.4% quarter-on-quarter amid resilient private consumption and export recovery. Recent Tankan and PMI readings through March have signaled solid domestic demand and steady capital expenditure, while gasoline tax cuts and utility subsidies have supported household spending. Elevated energy costs stemming from Middle East developments appear largely deferred to Q2, limiting near-term downside pressure on the first-quarter print. The closely contested 0.6–0.8% outcome captures uncertainty around whether final data revisions will exceed or fall short of these estimates, with the Cabinet Office’s preliminary release scheduled for May 19 serving as the key catalyst that will resolve the market.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour0,3–0,5 % 50.5%
0,0–0,2 % 6.6%
-0,3– -0,1 % 4.3%
1,2 %+ 2.2%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
19 mai 2026
≤-0,4 %
1%
-0,3– -0,1 %
4%
0,0–0,2 %
7%
0,3–0,5 %
51%
0,6–0,8 %
43%
0,9–1,1 %
30%
1,2 %+
2%
0,3–0,5 % 50.5%
0,0–0,2 % 6.6%
-0,3– -0,1 % 4.3%
1,2 %+ 2.2%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
19 mai 2026
≤-0,4 %
$1,277 Vol.
1%
-0,3– -0,1 %
$1,207 Vol.
4%
0,0–0,2 %
$1,317 Vol.
7%
0,3–0,5 %
$871 Vol.
51%
0,6–0,8 %
$546 Vol.
43%
0,9–1,1 %
$752 Vol.
30%
1,2 %+
$3,335 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlTraders are pricing Japan’s Q1 2026 GDP growth most heavily toward the 0.3–0.5% range, reflecting consensus forecasts that cluster near 0.4% quarter-on-quarter amid resilient private consumption and export recovery. Recent Tankan and PMI readings through March have signaled solid domestic demand and steady capital expenditure, while gasoline tax cuts and utility subsidies have supported household spending. Elevated energy costs stemming from Middle East developments appear largely deferred to Q2, limiting near-term downside pressure on the first-quarter print. The closely contested 0.6–0.8% outcome captures uncertainty around whether final data revisions will exceed or fall short of these estimates, with the Cabinet Office’s preliminary release scheduled for May 19 serving as the key catalyst that will resolve the market.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Marché ouvert : Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$9,306Date de fin
19 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlTraders are pricing Japan’s Q1 2026 GDP growth most heavily toward the 0.3–0.5% range, reflecting consensus forecasts that cluster near 0.4% quarter-on-quarter amid resilient private consumption and export recovery. Recent Tankan and PMI readings through March have signaled solid domestic demand and steady capital expenditure, while gasoline tax cuts and utility subsidies have supported household spending. Elevated energy costs stemming from Middle East developments appear largely deferred to Q2, limiting near-term downside pressure on the first-quarter print. The closely contested 0.6–0.8% outcome captures uncertainty around whether final data revisions will exceed or fall short of these estimates, with the Cabinet Office’s preliminary release scheduled for May 19 serving as the key catalyst that will resolve the market.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volume
$9,306Date de fin
19 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders are pricing Japan’s Q1 2026 GDP growth most heavily toward the 0.3–0.5% range, reflecting consensus forecasts that cluster near 0.4% quarter-on-quarter amid resilient private consumption and export recovery. Recent Tankan and PMI readings through March have signaled solid domestic demand and steady capital expenditure, while gasoline tax cuts and utility subsidies have supported household spending. Elevated energy costs stemming from Middle East developments appear largely deferred to Q2, limiting near-term downside pressure on the first-quarter print. The closely contested 0.6–0.8% outcome captures uncertainty around whether final data revisions will exceed or fall short of these estimates, with the Cabinet Office’s preliminary release scheduled for May 19 serving as the key catalyst that will resolve the market.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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