Traders assign a 99% implied probability to a 25°C low in Guangzhou on September 12, 2026, driven by consistent official forecasts and real-time observations placing overnight minima at 24–26°C under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Historical data show an average September 12 low of 24.5°C, with recent years rarely deviating more than 1–2°C absent strong cold fronts or typhoon influences, which are absent in current model runs from agencies tracking regional patterns. Elevated humidity and light northeasterly winds support gradual radiative cooling to this range without extremes. Only an unforecasted surge or station-specific microclimate anomaly would shift the recorded minimum outside 24–26°C, a low-likelihood outcome given model consensus and ongoing monitoring.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Guangzhou le 12 septembre ?
La température la plus basse à Guangzhou le 12 septembre ?
25°C 100.0%
18°C ou moins <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$700 Vol.
$700 Vol.
12 sept. 2026
18°C ou moins
Non
19°C
Non
20°C
Non
21°C
Non
22°C
Non
23°C
Non
24°C
Non
25°C
Oui
26°C
Non
27°C
Non
28°C ou plus
Non
25°C 100.0%
18°C ou moins <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$700 Vol.
$700 Vol.
12 sept. 2026
18°C ou moins
$63 Vol.
Non
19°C
$45 Vol.
Non
20°C
$15 Vol.
Non
21°C
$33 Vol.
Non
22°C
$87 Vol.
Non
23°C
$93 Vol.
Non
24°C
$97 Vol.
Non
25°C
$166 Vol.
Oui
26°C
$15 Vol.
Non
27°C
$30 Vol.
Non
28°C ou plus
$56 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign a 99% implied probability to a 25°C low in Guangzhou on September 12, 2026, driven by consistent official forecasts and real-time observations placing overnight minima at 24–26°C under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Historical data show an average September 12 low of 24.5°C, with recent years rarely deviating more than 1–2°C absent strong cold fronts or typhoon influences, which are absent in current model runs from agencies tracking regional patterns. Elevated humidity and light northeasterly winds support gradual radiative cooling to this range without extremes. Only an unforecasted surge or station-specific microclimate anomaly would shift the recorded minimum outside 24–26°C, a low-likelihood outcome given model consensus and ongoing monitoring.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$700Date de fin
12 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign a 99% implied probability to a 25°C low in Guangzhou on September 12, 2026, driven by consistent official forecasts and real-time observations placing overnight minima at 24–26°C under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Historical data show an average September 12 low of 24.5°C, with recent years rarely deviating more than 1–2°C absent strong cold fronts or typhoon influences, which are absent in current model runs from agencies tracking regional patterns. Elevated humidity and light northeasterly winds support gradual radiative cooling to this range without extremes. Only an unforecasted surge or station-specific microclimate anomaly would shift the recorded minimum outside 24–26°C, a low-likelihood outcome given model consensus and ongoing monitoring.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$700Date de fin
12 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Traders assign a 99% implied probability to a 25°C low in Guangzhou on September 12, 2026, driven by consistent official forecasts and real-time observations placing overnight minima at 24–26°C under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions. Historical data show an average September 12 low of 24.5°C, with recent years rarely deviating more than 1–2°C absent strong cold fronts or typhoon influences, which are absent in current model runs from agencies tracking regional patterns. Elevated humidity and light northeasterly winds support gradual radiative cooling to this range without extremes. Only an unforecasted surge or station-specific microclimate anomaly would shift the recorded minimum outside 24–26°C, a low-likelihood outcome given model consensus and ongoing monitoring.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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