Trader consensus on Polymarket tightly clusters implied probabilities around 6-8°C for London's lowest temperature on May 14, reflecting latest Met Office guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts projecting nocturnal minimums in this range amid persistent low-pressure influence. Recent observations from May 10-12 show below-average lows of 4-6°C under showery conditions and light northerly winds, establishing a cool mid-May pattern cooler than the 7-11°C climatological baseline at Heathrow. Key differentiators include overnight cloud cover—persistent stratus could cap cooling at 8°C—versus clearer skies promoting radiative cooling toward 6°C, with light winds amplifying uncertainty. Resolution draws from Wunderground's official London record; watch Met Office's twice-daily updates and model refreshes for shifts ahead of the May 13-14 night.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Londres le 14 mai ?
La température la plus basse à Londres le 14 mai ?
7°C 36%
6°C 26%
8°C 20%
5°C 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 mai 2026
1°C ou moins
<1%
2°C
<1%
3°C
1%
4°C
1%
5°C
12%
6°C
28%
7°C
36%
8°C
20%
9°C
4%
10°C
<1%
11°C ou plus
<1%
7°C 36%
6°C 26%
8°C 20%
5°C 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 mai 2026
1°C ou moins
$316 Vol.
<1%
2°C
$230 Vol.
<1%
3°C
$203 Vol.
1%
4°C
$69 Vol.
1%
5°C
$251 Vol.
12%
6°C
$146 Vol.
28%
7°C
$111 Vol.
36%
8°C
$173 Vol.
20%
9°C
$126 Vol.
4%
10°C
$312 Vol.
<1%
11°C ou plus
$1,815 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket tightly clusters implied probabilities around 6-8°C for London's lowest temperature on May 14, reflecting latest Met Office guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts projecting nocturnal minimums in this range amid persistent low-pressure influence. Recent observations from May 10-12 show below-average lows of 4-6°C under showery conditions and light northerly winds, establishing a cool mid-May pattern cooler than the 7-11°C climatological baseline at Heathrow. Key differentiators include overnight cloud cover—persistent stratus could cap cooling at 8°C—versus clearer skies promoting radiative cooling toward 6°C, with light winds amplifying uncertainty. Resolution draws from Wunderground's official London record; watch Met Office's twice-daily updates and model refreshes for shifts ahead of the May 13-14 night.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$3,751Date de fin
14 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket tightly clusters implied probabilities around 6-8°C for London's lowest temperature on May 14, reflecting latest Met Office guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts projecting nocturnal minimums in this range amid persistent low-pressure influence. Recent observations from May 10-12 show below-average lows of 4-6°C under showery conditions and light northerly winds, establishing a cool mid-May pattern cooler than the 7-11°C climatological baseline at Heathrow. Key differentiators include overnight cloud cover—persistent stratus could cap cooling at 8°C—versus clearer skies promoting radiative cooling toward 6°C, with light winds amplifying uncertainty. Resolution draws from Wunderground's official London record; watch Met Office's twice-daily updates and model refreshes for shifts ahead of the May 13-14 night.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,751Date de fin
14 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tightly clusters implied probabilities around 6-8°C for London's lowest temperature on May 14, reflecting latest Met Office guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts projecting nocturnal minimums in this range amid persistent low-pressure influence. Recent observations from May 10-12 show below-average lows of 4-6°C under showery conditions and light northerly winds, establishing a cool mid-May pattern cooler than the 7-11°C climatological baseline at Heathrow. Key differentiators include overnight cloud cover—persistent stratus could cap cooling at 8°C—versus clearer skies promoting radiative cooling toward 6°C, with light winds amplifying uncertainty. Resolution draws from Wunderground's official London record; watch Met Office's twice-daily updates and model refreshes for shifts ahead of the May 13-14 night.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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