Russia's political system has shown sustained elite consolidation and security service dominance through mid-2026 despite war fatigue, Ukrainian drone strikes on energy infrastructure, and economic strains including rising deficits and inflation. State polling indicates Putin's trust ratings have eased to the low 70s from higher wartime peaks, while United Russia faces September Duma elections amid public pressure for negotiations, yet no coordinated military or factional challenge has emerged. Earlier reports of Kremlin security tightening and elite suspicions, including around figures like Sergei Shoigu, did not produce verifiable plots, and isolated attacks on officials appear tied to external operations rather than internal revolt. Traders price the low probability of a 2026 coup attempt on this pattern of managed internal frictions and institutional controls that have contained dissent since the 2023 Wagner events.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour6% chance
$129,228 Vol.
$129,228 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
6% chance
$129,228 Vol.
$129,228 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's political system has shown sustained elite consolidation and security service dominance through mid-2026 despite war fatigue, Ukrainian drone strikes on energy infrastructure, and economic strains including rising deficits and inflation. State polling indicates Putin's trust ratings have eased to the low 70s from higher wartime peaks, while United Russia faces September Duma elections amid public pressure for negotiations, yet no coordinated military or factional challenge has emerged. Earlier reports of Kremlin security tightening and elite suspicions, including around figures like Sergei Shoigu, did not produce verifiable plots, and isolated attacks on officials appear tied to external operations rather than internal revolt. Traders price the low probability of a 2026 coup attempt on this pattern of managed internal frictions and institutional controls that have contained dissent since the 2023 Wagner events.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volume
$129,228Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's political system has shown sustained elite consolidation and security service dominance through mid-2026 despite war fatigue, Ukrainian drone strikes on energy infrastructure, and economic strains including rising deficits and inflation. State polling indicates Putin's trust ratings have eased to the low 70s from higher wartime peaks, while United Russia faces September Duma elections amid public pressure for negotiations, yet no coordinated military or factional challenge has emerged. Earlier reports of Kremlin security tightening and elite suspicions, including around figures like Sergei Shoigu, did not produce verifiable plots, and isolated attacks on officials appear tied to external operations rather than internal revolt. Traders price the low probability of a 2026 coup attempt on this pattern of managed internal frictions and institutional controls that have contained dissent since the 2023 Wagner events.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$129,228Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Russia's political system has shown sustained elite consolidation and security service dominance through mid-2026 despite war fatigue, Ukrainian drone strikes on energy infrastructure, and economic strains including rising deficits and inflation. State polling indicates Putin's trust ratings have eased to the low 70s from higher wartime peaks, while United Russia faces September Duma elections amid public pressure for negotiations, yet no coordinated military or factional challenge has emerged. Earlier reports of Kremlin security tightening and elite suspicions, including around figures like Sergei Shoigu, did not produce verifiable plots, and isolated attacks on officials appear tied to external operations rather than internal revolt. Traders price the low probability of a 2026 coup attempt on this pattern of managed internal frictions and institutional controls that have contained dissent since the 2023 Wagner events.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes