Recent polling from the University of Houston Hobby School shows Christian Menefee leading Al Green by seven points in the May 26 Democratic primary runoff for Texas’s 18th Congressional District, with Menefee holding advantages among younger voters and key demographic blocs after redistricting merged portions of adjacent seats. Menefee, who won a special election to fill the vacancy created by Sylvester Turner’s death, benefits from established campaign infrastructure and early momentum in the newly configured district. Green, a longtime incumbent emphasizing seniority and legislative experience, has narrowed the gap from the March primary but trails in head-to-head surveys conducted ahead of early voting that begins May 18. These developments have shaped trader consensus around Menefee as the frontrunner while leaving limited room for a late shift in voter preferences.