**Republican Morgan Griffith secured a comfortable victory in Virginia’s 9th congressional district on November 3, 2026, defeating Democrat Joy Powers by roughly 32 points (approximately 66% to 34%) based on unofficial tallies with most precincts reporting.** The district’s longstanding Republican lean—evident in presidential results exceeding R+40—combined with Griffith’s incumbency and substantial fundraising advantage over the Democratic challenger, produced the expected large margin. Traders have concentrated probability on the 30-35% Republican margin bucket at 59%, reflecting the observed outcome and the narrow width of these intervals. Final certified results from Virginia election officials could shift allocation between adjacent buckets if the precise percentage lands near a boundary, while the absence of major late developments or recounts has kept the distribution stable around the realized result.