Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 release in mid-April, followed by May Dev Day updates to agent workflows and Claude Code features, has solidified its lead in coding benchmarks and long-running task reliability, driving the 71% implied probability. Traders see these advances as outpacing competitors in practical capabilities that define frontier large language models. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite launch and multi-token prediction improvements on May 8 keep it at 20.5% by strengthening efficiency and reasoning edges. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 Instant default rollout on May 5 and xAI’s Grok 4.3 update have not shifted enough benchmark leadership or agent performance to close the gap, leaving their odds at 6% and 1.1% respectively ahead of June resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 71.0%
Google 21%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 1.1%
$6,013,049 Vol.
$6,013,049 Vol.

Anthropic
71%

21%

OpenAI
6%

xAI
1%

Meta
1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Microsoft
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 71.0%
Google 21%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 1.1%
$6,013,049 Vol.
$6,013,049 Vol.

Anthropic
71%

21%

OpenAI
6%

xAI
1%

Meta
1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Microsoft
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Baidu
<1%
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 release in mid-April, followed by May Dev Day updates to agent workflows and Claude Code features, has solidified its lead in coding benchmarks and long-running task reliability, driving the 71% implied probability. Traders see these advances as outpacing competitors in practical capabilities that define frontier large language models. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite launch and multi-token prediction improvements on May 8 keep it at 20.5% by strengthening efficiency and reasoning edges. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 Instant default rollout on May 5 and xAI’s Grok 4.3 update have not shifted enough benchmark leadership or agent performance to close the gap, leaving their odds at 6% and 1.1% respectively ahead of June resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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