Anthropic leads the market-implied odds for the third-ranked AI model by end of June under style control because its recent Claude Opus 4.7 and 4.6 variants have posted sustained high arena scores on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, particularly in reasoning and long-context tasks. Google follows closely as Gemini 3.1 Pro continues to deliver competitive multimodal results and strong benchmark placements behind OpenAI's GPT-5.5 variants. Traders are pricing in limited near-term disruption from other labs, with no major releases announced that would reorder the top tier before June. The style-control setting emphasizes consistent output quality over stylistic flair, favoring established frontier models from Anthropic and Google over newer or lower-cost entrants.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 50%
Google 23%
Meta 9.5%
Meituan 7.6%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 juin 2026
Anthropic
57%
30%
Meta
10%
Meituan
8%
xAI
6%
DeepSeek
5%
OpenAI
5%
Amazon
4%
Mistral
3%
Alibaba
22%
Baidu
1%
Z.ai
1%
ByteDance
1%
Microsoft
8%
Moonshot
<1%
Anthropic 50%
Google 23%
Meta 9.5%
Meituan 7.6%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 juin 2026
Anthropic
$309 Vol.
57%
$416 Vol.
30%
Meta
$126 Vol.
10%
Meituan
$179 Vol.
8%
xAI
$200 Vol.
6%
DeepSeek
$186 Vol.
5%
OpenAI
$250 Vol.
5%
Amazon
$186 Vol.
4%
Mistral
$186 Vol.
3%
Alibaba
$186 Vol.
22%
Baidu
$188 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$126 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$126 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$186 Vol.
8%
Moonshot
$159 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic leads the market-implied odds for the third-ranked AI model by end of June under style control because its recent Claude Opus 4.7 and 4.6 variants have posted sustained high arena scores on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, particularly in reasoning and long-context tasks. Google follows closely as Gemini 3.1 Pro continues to deliver competitive multimodal results and strong benchmark placements behind OpenAI's GPT-5.5 variants. Traders are pricing in limited near-term disruption from other labs, with no major releases announced that would reorder the top tier before June. The style-control setting emphasizes consistent output quality over stylistic flair, favoring established frontier models from Anthropic and Google over newer or lower-cost entrants.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volume
$3,009Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic leads the market-implied odds for the third-ranked AI model by end of June under style control because its recent Claude Opus 4.7 and 4.6 variants have posted sustained high arena scores on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, particularly in reasoning and long-context tasks. Google follows closely as Gemini 3.1 Pro continues to deliver competitive multimodal results and strong benchmark placements behind OpenAI's GPT-5.5 variants. Traders are pricing in limited near-term disruption from other labs, with no major releases announced that would reorder the top tier before June. The style-control setting emphasizes consistent output quality over stylistic flair, favoring established frontier models from Anthropic and Google over newer or lower-cost entrants.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$3,009Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic leads the market-implied odds for the third-ranked AI model by end of June under style control because its recent Claude Opus 4.7 and 4.6 variants have posted sustained high arena scores on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, particularly in reasoning and long-context tasks. Google follows closely as Gemini 3.1 Pro continues to deliver competitive multimodal results and strong benchmark placements behind OpenAI's GPT-5.5 variants. Traders are pricing in limited near-term disruption from other labs, with no major releases announced that would reorder the top tier before June. The style-control setting emphasizes consistent output quality over stylistic flair, favoring established frontier models from Anthropic and Google over newer or lower-cost entrants.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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