Iranian officials and lawmakers have repeatedly threatened NPT withdrawal and advanced related legislation in parliament amid 2025-2026 U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities, citing sanctions snapback risks and attacks on safeguarded sites. These moves, including bills submitted in March and fast-tracked proposals in May 2026, remain at the rhetorical or preparatory stage without enactment. Iran continued submitting working papers and participating in the 2026 NPT Review Conference, underscoring its ongoing engagement with treaty mechanisms. Historical patterns show such threats functioning primarily as leverage in diplomatic negotiations rather than triggers for exit, which would end IAEA inspections, restrict civil nuclear cooperation, and heighten isolation. Traders assess these structural and procedural barriers as outweighing escalation risks through 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourL'Iran se retirera-t-il du TNP avant 2027 ?
L'Iran se retirera-t-il du TNP avant 2027 ?
Oui
10% chance
$323,790 Vol.
$323,790 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
10% chance
$323,790 Vol.
$323,790 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian officials and lawmakers have repeatedly threatened NPT withdrawal and advanced related legislation in parliament amid 2025-2026 U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities, citing sanctions snapback risks and attacks on safeguarded sites. These moves, including bills submitted in March and fast-tracked proposals in May 2026, remain at the rhetorical or preparatory stage without enactment. Iran continued submitting working papers and participating in the 2026 NPT Review Conference, underscoring its ongoing engagement with treaty mechanisms. Historical patterns show such threats functioning primarily as leverage in diplomatic negotiations rather than triggers for exit, which would end IAEA inspections, restrict civil nuclear cooperation, and heighten isolation. Traders assess these structural and procedural barriers as outweighing escalation risks through 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$323,790Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian officials and lawmakers have repeatedly threatened NPT withdrawal and advanced related legislation in parliament amid 2025-2026 U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities, citing sanctions snapback risks and attacks on safeguarded sites. These moves, including bills submitted in March and fast-tracked proposals in May 2026, remain at the rhetorical or preparatory stage without enactment. Iran continued submitting working papers and participating in the 2026 NPT Review Conference, underscoring its ongoing engagement with treaty mechanisms. Historical patterns show such threats functioning primarily as leverage in diplomatic negotiations rather than triggers for exit, which would end IAEA inspections, restrict civil nuclear cooperation, and heighten isolation. Traders assess these structural and procedural barriers as outweighing escalation risks through 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$323,790Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iranian officials and lawmakers have repeatedly threatened NPT withdrawal and advanced related legislation in parliament amid 2025-2026 U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities, citing sanctions snapback risks and attacks on safeguarded sites. These moves, including bills submitted in March and fast-tracked proposals in May 2026, remain at the rhetorical or preparatory stage without enactment. Iran continued submitting working papers and participating in the 2026 NPT Review Conference, underscoring its ongoing engagement with treaty mechanisms. Historical patterns show such threats functioning primarily as leverage in diplomatic negotiations rather than triggers for exit, which would end IAEA inspections, restrict civil nuclear cooperation, and heighten isolation. Traders assess these structural and procedural barriers as outweighing escalation risks through 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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