Recent emissions data from the Global Carbon Project and observational records show annual CO₂ releases remaining near 42 Gt, consistent with the Mercator Research Institute's carbon budget calculation anchored to IPCC AR6 estimates that set the climateclock.world deadline at July 22, 2029. No major IPCC reassessment or revised remaining budget is scheduled before late 2026, and the clock's methodology updates only when authoritative inputs shift substantially rather than with routine yearly fluctuations. This underpins the 90.5% market-implied probability that the published 1.5°C deadline stays unchanged through December 31, 2026. A new comprehensive carbon budget report or abrupt global emissions surge could still prompt revision, though current trajectories and update cadence make such shifts unlikely in the near term.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourL'échéance de 1,5°C de l'Horloge Climatique va-t-elle changer d'ici… ?
L'échéance de 1,5°C de l'Horloge Climatique va-t-elle changer d'ici… ?
10% chance
$13,931 Vol.
$13,931 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
10% chance
$13,931 Vol.
$13,931 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Recent emissions data from the Global Carbon Project and observational records show annual CO₂ releases remaining near 42 Gt, consistent with the Mercator Research Institute's carbon budget calculation anchored to IPCC AR6 estimates that set the climateclock.world deadline at July 22, 2029. No major IPCC reassessment or revised remaining budget is scheduled before late 2026, and the clock's methodology updates only when authoritative inputs shift substantially rather than with routine yearly fluctuations. This underpins the 90.5% market-implied probability that the published 1.5°C deadline stays unchanged through December 31, 2026. A new comprehensive carbon budget report or abrupt global emissions surge could still prompt revision, though current trajectories and update cadence make such shifts unlikely in the near term.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Marché ouvert : Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
Volume
$13,931Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETSource de résolution
https://climateclock.worldRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Recent emissions data from the Global Carbon Project and observational records show annual CO₂ releases remaining near 42 Gt, consistent with the Mercator Research Institute's carbon budget calculation anchored to IPCC AR6 estimates that set the climateclock.world deadline at July 22, 2029. No major IPCC reassessment or revised remaining budget is scheduled before late 2026, and the clock's methodology updates only when authoritative inputs shift substantially rather than with routine yearly fluctuations. This underpins the 90.5% market-implied probability that the published 1.5°C deadline stays unchanged through December 31, 2026. A new comprehensive carbon budget report or abrupt global emissions surge could still prompt revision, though current trajectories and update cadence make such shifts unlikely in the near term.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$13,931Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETSource de résolution
https://climateclock.worldRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Recent emissions data from the Global Carbon Project and observational records show annual CO₂ releases remaining near 42 Gt, consistent with the Mercator Research Institute's carbon budget calculation anchored to IPCC AR6 estimates that set the climateclock.world deadline at July 22, 2029. No major IPCC reassessment or revised remaining budget is scheduled before late 2026, and the clock's methodology updates only when authoritative inputs shift substantially rather than with routine yearly fluctuations. This underpins the 90.5% market-implied probability that the published 1.5°C deadline stays unchanged through December 31, 2026. A new comprehensive carbon budget report or abrupt global emissions surge could still prompt revision, though current trajectories and update cadence make such shifts unlikely in the near term.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes