**NOAA’s August 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion reports El Niño already strengthening, with sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region at +1.4 °C and a greater than 90 % chance of a very strong event (typically defined by multi-month averages exceeding +2.0 °C) persisting through the 2026–27 Northern Hemisphere winter.** Subsurface heat content, westerly wind anomalies, and suppressed convection over Indonesia have reinforced the ocean–atmosphere coupling, while the CPC multi-model ensemble and individual dynamical forecasts project continued intensification, with some runs indicating a historic peak near or above +2.5 °C. This rapid evolution from neutral conditions earlier in 2026 underpins the 91.2 % market-implied probability. Realistic challenges remain: forecast spread across models could narrow the peak if atmospheric feedback weakens, or if an unexpected shift toward neutral conditions occurs after the usual winter maximum; verification against the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) also introduces modest uncertainty in exact strength classification.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourY aura-t-il un Super El Niño cet hiver (2026-2027) ?
Y aura-t-il un Super El Niño cet hiver (2026-2027) ?
Oui
91% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 avr. 2027
Oui
91% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 avr. 2027
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.**NOAA’s August 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion reports El Niño already strengthening, with sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region at +1.4 °C and a greater than 90 % chance of a very strong event (typically defined by multi-month averages exceeding +2.0 °C) persisting through the 2026–27 Northern Hemisphere winter.** Subsurface heat content, westerly wind anomalies, and suppressed convection over Indonesia have reinforced the ocean–atmosphere coupling, while the CPC multi-model ensemble and individual dynamical forecasts project continued intensification, with some runs indicating a historic peak near or above +2.5 °C. This rapid evolution from neutral conditions earlier in 2026 underpins the 91.2 % market-implied probability.
Realistic challenges remain: forecast spread across models could narrow the peak if atmospheric feedback weakens, or if an unexpected shift toward neutral conditions occurs after the usual winter maximum; verification against the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) also introduces modest uncertainty in exact strength classification.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Marché ouvert : Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Volume
$5,506Date de fin
1 avr. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.**NOAA’s August 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion reports El Niño already strengthening, with sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region at +1.4 °C and a greater than 90 % chance of a very strong event (typically defined by multi-month averages exceeding +2.0 °C) persisting through the 2026–27 Northern Hemisphere winter.** Subsurface heat content, westerly wind anomalies, and suppressed convection over Indonesia have reinforced the ocean–atmosphere coupling, while the CPC multi-model ensemble and individual dynamical forecasts project continued intensification, with some runs indicating a historic peak near or above +2.5 °C. This rapid evolution from neutral conditions earlier in 2026 underpins the 91.2 % market-implied probability.
Realistic challenges remain: forecast spread across models could narrow the peak if atmospheric feedback weakens, or if an unexpected shift toward neutral conditions occurs after the usual winter maximum; verification against the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) also introduces modest uncertainty in exact strength classification.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Volume
$5,506Date de fin
1 avr. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**NOAA’s August 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion reports El Niño already strengthening, with sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region at +1.4 °C and a greater than 90 % chance of a very strong event (typically defined by multi-month averages exceeding +2.0 °C) persisting through the 2026–27 Northern Hemisphere winter.** Subsurface heat content, westerly wind anomalies, and suppressed convection over Indonesia have reinforced the ocean–atmosphere coupling, while the CPC multi-model ensemble and individual dynamical forecasts project continued intensification, with some runs indicating a historic peak near or above +2.5 °C. This rapid evolution from neutral conditions earlier in 2026 underpins the 91.2 % market-implied probability. Realistic challenges remain: forecast spread across models could narrow the peak if atmospheric feedback weakens, or if an unexpected shift toward neutral conditions occurs after the usual winter maximum; verification against the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) also introduces modest uncertainty in exact strength classification.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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