Persistent fiscal imbalances, including high mandatory spending, rising net interest costs, and recent legislation extending tax cuts while increasing defense and border appropriations, underpin the near-certain trader view that deficits will not decline before 2027. CBO baselines project a $1.9 trillion shortfall in fiscal year 2026, with similar or larger gaps persisting into 2027 under current trajectories and administration proposals. Recent reconciliation measures and budget requests have added trillions to cumulative deficits over the decade. Shifts could occur through large-scale rescissions, entitlement reforms passed via reconciliation, or unexpectedly robust revenue growth from tariffs or economic expansion, though such changes face tight legislative timelines and political hurdles.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
2% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Oui
2% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Persistent fiscal imbalances, including high mandatory spending, rising net interest costs, and recent legislation extending tax cuts while increasing defense and border appropriations, underpin the near-certain trader view that deficits will not decline before 2027. CBO baselines project a $1.9 trillion shortfall in fiscal year 2026, with similar or larger gaps persisting into 2027 under current trajectories and administration proposals. Recent reconciliation measures and budget requests have added trillions to cumulative deficits over the decade. Shifts could occur through large-scale rescissions, entitlement reforms passed via reconciliation, or unexpectedly robust revenue growth from tariffs or economic expansion, though such changes face tight legislative timelines and political hurdles.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,497Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Persistent fiscal imbalances, including high mandatory spending, rising net interest costs, and recent legislation extending tax cuts while increasing defense and border appropriations, underpin the near-certain trader view that deficits will not decline before 2027. CBO baselines project a $1.9 trillion shortfall in fiscal year 2026, with similar or larger gaps persisting into 2027 under current trajectories and administration proposals. Recent reconciliation measures and budget requests have added trillions to cumulative deficits over the decade. Shifts could occur through large-scale rescissions, entitlement reforms passed via reconciliation, or unexpectedly robust revenue growth from tariffs or economic expansion, though such changes face tight legislative timelines and political hurdles.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Volume
$2,497Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent fiscal imbalances, including high mandatory spending, rising net interest costs, and recent legislation extending tax cuts while increasing defense and border appropriations, underpin the near-certain trader view that deficits will not decline before 2027. CBO baselines project a $1.9 trillion shortfall in fiscal year 2026, with similar or larger gaps persisting into 2027 under current trajectories and administration proposals. Recent reconciliation measures and budget requests have added trillions to cumulative deficits over the decade. Shifts could occur through large-scale rescissions, entitlement reforms passed via reconciliation, or unexpectedly robust revenue growth from tariffs or economic expansion, though such changes face tight legislative timelines and political hurdles.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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