Ukrainian forces have conducted repeated long-range strikes on Russian air defense systems, radar installations, and logistics nodes across occupied Crimea in recent weeks, including Pantsir and S-400 sites near Khutorok and Perevalne, yet these operations have not altered Russian territorial control of the peninsula. Russian troops maintain fortified positions supported by the Kerch Bridge and Black Sea naval assets, while Ukrainian ground advances remain concentrated in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk oblasts without a viable path to Crimea before June 30, 2026. Traders assign a 98.8 percent probability to no recapture, reflecting the short timeline, logistical barriers to amphibious or overland operations, and the absence of conditions for a decisive breakthrough. Residual uncertainty stems from potential sudden shifts in Western military aid or an unanticipated Russian withdrawal triggered by broader front-line collapse.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourL'Ukraine reprendra-t-elle le territoire de la Crimée d'ici le 30 juin 2026 ?
L'Ukraine reprendra-t-elle le territoire de la Crimée d'ici le 30 juin 2026 ?
Oui
$657,845 Vol.
$657,845 Vol.
30 juin 2026
Oui
$657,845 Vol.
$657,845 Vol.
30 juin 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Ukrainian forces have conducted repeated long-range strikes on Russian air defense systems, radar installations, and logistics nodes across occupied Crimea in recent weeks, including Pantsir and S-400 sites near Khutorok and Perevalne, yet these operations have not altered Russian territorial control of the peninsula. Russian troops maintain fortified positions supported by the Kerch Bridge and Black Sea naval assets, while Ukrainian ground advances remain concentrated in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk oblasts without a viable path to Crimea before June 30, 2026. Traders assign a 98.8 percent probability to no recapture, reflecting the short timeline, logistical barriers to amphibious or overland operations, and the absence of conditions for a decisive breakthrough. Residual uncertainty stems from potential sudden shifts in Western military aid or an unanticipated Russian withdrawal triggered by broader front-line collapse.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
Volume
$657,845Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Ukrainian forces have conducted repeated long-range strikes on Russian air defense systems, radar installations, and logistics nodes across occupied Crimea in recent weeks, including Pantsir and S-400 sites near Khutorok and Perevalne, yet these operations have not altered Russian territorial control of the peninsula. Russian troops maintain fortified positions supported by the Kerch Bridge and Black Sea naval assets, while Ukrainian ground advances remain concentrated in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk oblasts without a viable path to Crimea before June 30, 2026. Traders assign a 98.8 percent probability to no recapture, reflecting the short timeline, logistical barriers to amphibious or overland operations, and the absence of conditions for a decisive breakthrough. Residual uncertainty stems from potential sudden shifts in Western military aid or an unanticipated Russian withdrawal triggered by broader front-line collapse.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Volume
$657,845Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukrainian forces have conducted repeated long-range strikes on Russian air defense systems, radar installations, and logistics nodes across occupied Crimea in recent weeks, including Pantsir and S-400 sites near Khutorok and Perevalne, yet these operations have not altered Russian territorial control of the peninsula. Russian troops maintain fortified positions supported by the Kerch Bridge and Black Sea naval assets, while Ukrainian ground advances remain concentrated in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk oblasts without a viable path to Crimea before June 30, 2026. Traders assign a 98.8 percent probability to no recapture, reflecting the short timeline, logistical barriers to amphibious or overland operations, and the absence of conditions for a decisive breakthrough. Residual uncertainty stems from potential sudden shifts in Western military aid or an unanticipated Russian withdrawal triggered by broader front-line collapse.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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