Strong trader consensus on "No" at 98.5% stems from NASA's Sentry impact monitoring and CNEOS fireball data showing no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of a ≥1 megaton airburst in 2026. Planetary defense surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS have not flagged any threats of the necessary size—roughly 50 meters or larger—while historical rates indicate such events occur once per several centuries. With only months remaining and refined orbital models confirming background risk levels, the market reflects verified absence of hazards rather than speculation. Realistic shifts remain possible via discovery of a long-period comet or undetected small body, though detection thresholds and short remaining timeline create substantial barriers to altering the outcome.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में 1 मेगाटन उल्का हड़ताल?
2026 में 1 मेगाटन उल्का हड़ताल?
हाँ
2% संभावना
$117,272 वॉल्यूम
$117,272 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
2% संभावना
$117,272 वॉल्यूम
$117,272 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Strong trader consensus on "No" at 98.5% stems from NASA's Sentry impact monitoring and CNEOS fireball data showing no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of a ≥1 megaton airburst in 2026. Planetary defense surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS have not flagged any threats of the necessary size—roughly 50 meters or larger—while historical rates indicate such events occur once per several centuries. With only months remaining and refined orbital models confirming background risk levels, the market reflects verified absence of hazards rather than speculation. Realistic shifts remain possible via discovery of a long-period comet or undetected small body, though detection thresholds and short remaining timeline create substantial barriers to altering the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$117,272समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Strong trader consensus on "No" at 98.5% stems from NASA's Sentry impact monitoring and CNEOS fireball data showing no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of a ≥1 megaton airburst in 2026. Planetary defense surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS have not flagged any threats of the necessary size—roughly 50 meters or larger—while historical rates indicate such events occur once per several centuries. With only months remaining and refined orbital models confirming background risk levels, the market reflects verified absence of hazards rather than speculation. Realistic shifts remain possible via discovery of a long-period comet or undetected small body, though detection thresholds and short remaining timeline create substantial barriers to altering the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
वॉल्यूम
$117,272समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...Strong trader consensus on "No" at 98.5% stems from NASA's Sentry impact monitoring and CNEOS fireball data showing no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of a ≥1 megaton airburst in 2026. Planetary defense surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS have not flagged any threats of the necessary size—roughly 50 meters or larger—while historical rates indicate such events occur once per several centuries. With only months remaining and refined orbital models confirming background risk levels, the market reflects verified absence of hazards rather than speculation. Realistic shifts remain possible via discovery of a long-period comet or undetected small body, though detection thresholds and short remaining timeline create substantial barriers to altering the outcome.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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