The by-election for the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry UK parliamentary seat, triggered by SNP MP Stephen Gethins’s election to the Scottish Parliament, is set for 18 June 2026. Nominations closed in late May, producing a five-way contest among SNP candidate Lara Bird, Labour’s Heather Doran, Liberal Democrat Tanvir Ahmad, Conservative Jack Cruickshanks and Reform UK’s Bill Reid. The constituency’s narrow 2024 SNP majority and the short campaign window have left traders viewing multiple outcomes as plausible, with probabilities clustered in the low-to-mid 40s percent range. No recent constituency polling has emerged to shift the balance, and the final days before polling will determine whether any party consolidates support or if the result stays fragmented.