Persistent inflation above the 3% target, with April 2026 readings at 5.68% year-over-year and central bank staff projecting levels above 6% by year-end, underpins the near-even split in trader-implied odds between a 25-to-50 basis point hike and another hold at the current 11.25% policy rate. The unanimous April pause, which defied earlier tightening expectations, introduced caution as policymakers balance robust domestic demand and fiscal stimulus against moderating growth. Recent data revisions and the forthcoming May inflation release will serve as key swing factors ahead of the June 30 decision, leaving market consensus balanced between additional monetary tightening and a continued pause.