Mexico City’s high-elevation setting (roughly 2,240 m) keeps daytime maxima mild even in early June, when the rainy season begins and afternoon convection often limits peak heating. Current forecasts cluster tightly around 23–26 °C, with the 25 °C and 26 °C outcomes dominating trader pricing because models differ mainly on cloud cover timing and shower intensity rather than large-scale warmth. Light rain or persistent low stratus this afternoon would cap readings near 24 °C by reducing insolation, while clearer breaks could allow brief surface heating to 26 °C before storms develop. Official observations from the Mexico City station will resolve the market, and any last-hour model update from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional or ECMWF can still shift implied probabilities within this narrow band.