Recent meteorological model runs and ensemble guidance for Wuhan on June 15 center trader sentiment on 31–33°C maxima because daytime solar heating under partly cloudy to mostly sunny conditions is expected to produce a peak in that narrow band. Subtle differences in forecast timing of any afternoon cloud build-up, boundary-layer mixing, or localized wind shifts can shift the exact high by 1°C, which explains the closely matched probabilities (32°C at 34.5%, 31°C at 29.5%, 33°C at 24.5%). Mid-June climatology supports a rising baseline near 30–31°C, but current guidance shows limited moisture or frontal influence that would suppress the peak below 31°C or allow stronger heating toward 34°C. Official resolution will rely on the China Meteorological Administration station reading, so traders weigh model consensus against typical urban heat-island effects and observational uncertainty in the final 24 hours.