New People, a pro-business systemic opposition party, enters the 2026 State Duma election with limited prospects for substantial seat gains due to United Russia's entrenched dominance in both the proportional party-list and single-mandate components of Russia's mixed electoral system. Preliminary results after the September 18-20 vote show the party receiving roughly 7.8-8% of the federal list vote, consistent with pre-election polls placing it in fourth place behind United Russia, the CPRF, and LDPR. This level of support, combined with modest single-mandate candidacies and the 5% threshold mechanics, aligns with trader consensus that the party will secure well under 35 of the 450 seats, similar to its 13-seat outcome in 2021. Factors that could realistically increase its total include stronger-than-expected performance in urban districts or favorable allocation of any surplus votes, though these remain secondary to the broader structural constraints.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया<35 98.6%
85+ 2.0%
35–44 1.3%
65–74 <1%
$136,560 वॉल्यूम
$136,560 वॉल्यूम
20 सित, 2026
<35
99%
35–44
1%
45–54
1%
55–64
<1%
65–74
1%
75–84
<1%
85+
2%
<35 98.6%
85+ 2.0%
35–44 1.3%
65–74 <1%
$136,560 वॉल्यूम
$136,560 वॉल्यूम
20 सित, 2026
<35
$33,849 वॉल्यूम
99%
35–44
$29,462 वॉल्यूम
1%
45–54
$22,908 वॉल्यूम
1%
55–64
$14,040 वॉल्यूम
<1%
65–74
$13,552 वॉल्यूम
1%
75–84
$9,273 वॉल्यूम
<1%
85+
$13,475 वॉल्यूम
2%
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.New People, a pro-business systemic opposition party, enters the 2026 State Duma election with limited prospects for substantial seat gains due to United Russia's entrenched dominance in both the proportional party-list and single-mandate components of Russia's mixed electoral system. Preliminary results after the September 18-20 vote show the party receiving roughly 7.8-8% of the federal list vote, consistent with pre-election polls placing it in fourth place behind United Russia, the CPRF, and LDPR. This level of support, combined with modest single-mandate candidacies and the 5% threshold mechanics, aligns with trader consensus that the party will secure well under 35 of the 450 seats, similar to its 13-seat outcome in 2021. Factors that could realistically increase its total include stronger-than-expected performance in urban districts or favorable allocation of any surplus votes, though these remain secondary to the broader structural constraints.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 1, 2026, 8:54 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$136,560समाप्ति तिथि
20 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 1, 2026, 8:54 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.New People, a pro-business systemic opposition party, enters the 2026 State Duma election with limited prospects for substantial seat gains due to United Russia's entrenched dominance in both the proportional party-list and single-mandate components of Russia's mixed electoral system. Preliminary results after the September 18-20 vote show the party receiving roughly 7.8-8% of the federal list vote, consistent with pre-election polls placing it in fourth place behind United Russia, the CPRF, and LDPR. This level of support, combined with modest single-mandate candidacies and the 5% threshold mechanics, aligns with trader consensus that the party will secure well under 35 of the 450 seats, similar to its 13-seat outcome in 2021. Factors that could realistically increase its total include stronger-than-expected performance in urban districts or favorable allocation of any surplus votes, though these remain secondary to the broader structural constraints.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
वॉल्यूम
$136,560समाप्ति तिथि
20 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 1, 2026, 8:54 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...New People, a pro-business systemic opposition party, enters the 2026 State Duma election with limited prospects for substantial seat gains due to United Russia's entrenched dominance in both the proportional party-list and single-mandate components of Russia's mixed electoral system. Preliminary results after the September 18-20 vote show the party receiving roughly 7.8-8% of the federal list vote, consistent with pre-election polls placing it in fourth place behind United Russia, the CPRF, and LDPR. This level of support, combined with modest single-mandate candidacies and the 5% threshold mechanics, aligns with trader consensus that the party will secure well under 35 of the 450 seats, similar to its 13-seat outcome in 2021. Factors that could realistically increase its total include stronger-than-expected performance in urban districts or favorable allocation of any surplus votes, though these remain secondary to the broader structural constraints.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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