Recent polling and the Cook Political Report's January shift of Iowa's 3rd District to toss-up status from lean Republican have strengthened trader expectations for a Democratic hold. State Senator Sarah Trone Garriott leads incumbent Republican Zach Nunn in head-to-head surveys, aided by Democratic primary consolidation after Jennifer Konfrst's withdrawal and endorsement. Democrats have also outraised Nunn in recent FEC filings, while the district's Des Moines metro voters and sensitivity to federal tariff effects on agriculture contribute to the competitive environment ahead of the June 2 primaries. These factors sustain the current 68 percent implied probability for Democrats over Republicans despite Nunn's narrow 2024 victory.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाIA-03 House Election Winner
IA-03 House Election Winner
नया
नया
4 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
63%
Republican Party
35%
नया
नया
4 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
$854 वॉल्यूम
63%
Republican Party
$927 वॉल्यूम
35%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent polling and the Cook Political Report's January shift of Iowa's 3rd District to toss-up status from lean Republican have strengthened trader expectations for a Democratic hold. State Senator Sarah Trone Garriott leads incumbent Republican Zach Nunn in head-to-head surveys, aided by Democratic primary consolidation after Jennifer Konfrst's withdrawal and endorsement. Democrats have also outraised Nunn in recent FEC filings, while the district's Des Moines metro voters and sensitivity to federal tariff effects on agriculture contribute to the competitive environment ahead of the June 2 primaries. These factors sustain the current 68 percent implied probability for Democrats over Republicans despite Nunn's narrow 2024 victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,781समाप्ति तिथि
4 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent polling and the Cook Political Report's January shift of Iowa's 3rd District to toss-up status from lean Republican have strengthened trader expectations for a Democratic hold. State Senator Sarah Trone Garriott leads incumbent Republican Zach Nunn in head-to-head surveys, aided by Democratic primary consolidation after Jennifer Konfrst's withdrawal and endorsement. Democrats have also outraised Nunn in recent FEC filings, while the district's Des Moines metro voters and sensitivity to federal tariff effects on agriculture contribute to the competitive environment ahead of the June 2 primaries. These factors sustain the current 68 percent implied probability for Democrats over Republicans despite Nunn's narrow 2024 victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$1,781समाप्ति तिथि
4 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling and the Cook Political Report's January shift of Iowa's 3rd District to toss-up status from lean Republican have strengthened trader expectations for a Democratic hold. State Senator Sarah Trone Garriott leads incumbent Republican Zach Nunn in head-to-head surveys, aided by Democratic primary consolidation after Jennifer Konfrst's withdrawal and endorsement. Democrats have also outraised Nunn in recent FEC filings, while the district's Des Moines metro voters and sensitivity to federal tariff effects on agriculture contribute to the competitive environment ahead of the June 2 primaries. These factors sustain the current 68 percent implied probability for Democrats over Republicans despite Nunn's narrow 2024 victory.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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