The Justice Department's April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell—centered on congressional testimony regarding the central bank's $2.5 billion headquarters renovation—remains the dominant factor anchoring low market-implied odds of federal charges. A federal judge had already quashed related subpoenas in March, citing essentially zero evidence of criminal conduct and describing the effort as an improper attempt to pressure Powell over monetary policy decisions amid disputes on interest rate paths. Referral of the matter to the Fed inspector general, who previously identified no fraud in cost overruns, further reduced prospects for indictment. Trader consensus on prediction platforms prices the likelihood near zero through year-end, reflecting the probe's collapse, Powell's completed term as chair, and absence of fresh investigative catalysts despite lingering political tensions around central bank independence.