Incumbent Matthew Shoemaker holds a lead in trader consensus for the October 26, 2026, Sault Ste. Marie mayoral election, reflecting his established record on downtown redevelopment, port funding advocacy, and physician recruitment efforts. A September 25 watchdog ruling clearing him of police board misconduct removed a potential distraction and reinforced perceptions of steady leadership. Joel Rowswell, positioned as a “back to basics” alternative, draws measurable but secondary support amid debates over the $250-million port project’s economic versus environmental trade-offs. Other challengers, including Selva Rasaiah, Matthew Toffelmire, and Josh McNally, register minimal implied probability, consistent with limited name recognition and campaign visibility this close to voting. Upcoming candidate forums and any late federal funding decision on the port could still shift margins before ballots are cast.