Jozef Viskupič, the incumbent Trnava Region governor since 2017, holds an 85.5% implied probability in the market as the clear frontrunner for the October 24, 2026, election. He is backed by a broad coalition including Progresívne Slovensko, SaS, KDH, Demokrati, Hnutie Slovensko, Maďarské fórum, and OKS, which has consolidated center-right and liberal support behind his record of regional infrastructure and public service projects. Peter Hambálek, backed by Smer-SD, Hlas-SD, SNS, and Republika, sits at 8.0%, while József Berényi of Maďarská aliancia registers at 1.3%; both face structural disadvantages against the incumbent’s established base and cross-party alliances. The remaining candidates, including independents and smaller-party entrants, show negligible trader interest. With voting still weeks away, market pricing reflects the absence of major recent disruptions or polling shifts that would alter the established positioning ahead of the combined regional and municipal ballot.