The extremely short timeframe remaining until May 31 leaves insufficient opportunity for the constitutional mechanisms of removal, including House impeachment proceedings followed by a Senate trial, to reach completion. Traders assign near-certain probability to the incumbent remaining in office because no active investigations, resignation signals, or health developments have emerged that could accelerate such an outcome within days. Historical patterns show that even rapid political crises require weeks or months to unfold through Congress or other institutions. Late-breaking events such as a sudden medical emergency or major scandal could theoretically shift dynamics before the deadline, though the procedural timeline makes any change before month-end highly improbable.