Former U.S. Rep. Ben McAdams leads trader consensus at 77% implied probability to win Utah's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on June 23, driven by his top position in March polling, dominant fundraising with nearly $1 million more than rivals, and endorsement from state Sen. Kathleen Riebe, who dropped out in mid-April citing inability to compete financially. State Sen. Nate Blouin holds second at 15.5% amid a Young Democrats endorsement and claims of narrowing the gap in informed voter tests, while Liban Mohamed's 7.8% reflects his narrow April 25 state convention upset over McAdams via ranked-choice voting among delegates, though primary voters in Utah's open system—including potential Republican crossover—may favor McAdams' name recognition and moderate record in the blue-leaning district.