Recent polls show incumbent Ken Sim maintaining a lead among decided voters in a fragmented field, though more than a quarter of likely voters remain undecided ahead of the October 17 election. Pete Fry and Kareem Allam trail closely behind in surveys, benefiting from stronger net favorability ratings, while vote splitting across multiple parties—including TEAM, OneCity, COPE, and others—has kept the race competitive. Housing policy, accountability concerns, and the abandoned Villages Plan continue to shape voter priorities. Traders appear to price in Sim’s incumbency edge and base consolidation against the risk that undecideds or late shifts among challengers could narrow the gap, with upcoming nomination deadlines and forums likely to influence momentum before early voting begins.