Tight U.S. cattle supplies, with the beef cow herd at a record-low 28.5 million head as of July 2026 per USDA data, remain the dominant driver of elevated ground beef prices near $6.88–$6.90 per pound through mid-year. Persistent drought effects, high feed costs, and prior herd liquidation have constrained lean trim availability, pushing retail averages above prior peaks despite modest signs of rebuilding via higher replacement heifer numbers. Recent administration moves to waive tariffs on up to 300,000 metric tons of imported lean beef over 90 days have introduced downside pressure on cattle futures and ground beef sentiment, while packers face margin compression and production forecasts show 2026 output down roughly 4%. Traders weigh these policy shocks against slow supply recovery expected into 2027–2028, with oil prices and consumer substitution to competing proteins as secondary variables.