North Korea's pattern of short-range ballistic missile launches, including two tests from the Wonsan area on September 20, 2026, continues longstanding signaling against U.S.-South Korea joint drills without evidence of the troop concentrations, artillery barrages, or border crossings required for a conventional invasion. Traders price the "No" outcome near certainty because Pyongyang has prioritized nuclear and missile capabilities over the massive logistical buildup needed for ground operations across the DMZ, while the U.S.-South Korea alliance maintains robust deterrence and surveillance. Remaining low-probability pathways to a shift before year-end include miscalculation during heightened exercises or an abrupt leadership decision, though no verified indicators of such escalation have emerged in recent months.