Daniele Monroe-Moreno holds a clear lead in trader pricing for the November 3 general election after topping the June 9 nonpartisan primary with 47.1 percent to Scott Black’s 41.6 percent. The top-two format advanced only these candidates to the runoff, sidelining the remaining field and concentrating market focus on their head-to-head contest. Monroe-Moreno’s stronger primary showing, combined with her state legislative record and party leadership role, underpins the implied probability gap, while Black benefits from local council tenure and early fundraising advantages despite the outgoing mayor’s endorsement. With roughly six weeks remaining, campaign spending, turnout among North Las Vegas voters, and any late shifts in local priorities such as public safety and development could still influence final margins.