Redistricting after the Supreme Court decision reduced the Alabama 2nd district’s Black voting-age population and shifted it to a Republican lean, with Donald Trump carrying the new lines by roughly 14 points in 2024. Cook Political Report rates the seat Likely Republican and other forecasters place it in the Lean Republican column, establishing the primary structural advantage for challenger State Rep. Rhett Marques. Incumbent Rep. Shomari Figures retains name recognition and a substantial fundraising edge, yet recent internal polling has shown a close or modest Republican margin. In the final weeks before the November 3 election, both campaigns have escalated television and digital advertising, with Figures emphasizing Marques’ past votes on fuel taxes and Marques highlighting national Republican endorsements and Figures’ record on spending issues. Trader pricing reflects the district’s post-redistricting fundamentals and the limited time remaining for Figures to overcome the partisan shift.