Brazil’s central bank cut the Selic rate by 25 basis points to 14.50 percent at its late-April Copom meeting, extending the cautious easing cycle that began in March amid moderating GDP growth and resilient yet non-inflationary labor-market conditions. Market-implied odds heavily favor another reduction in June because prior policy transmission is viewed as sufficient to keep inflation on a converging path despite 2026 IPCA expectations holding near 4.9 percent, above the 3 percent target midpoint. Hawkish April minutes, however, stressed data dependence and elevated upside risks from geopolitical oil shocks, leaving room for a pause if incoming releases such as the full April IPCA print show further acceleration. This dynamic anchors the 76 percent implied probability of a decrease while capping no-change odds at roughly one-quarter.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiBank of Brazil Decision in June?
Bank of Brazil Decision in June?
Decrease 76%
No Change 24.2%
Increase <1%
$140,277 Vol.
$140,277 Vol.
Jun 16, 2026
Increase
1%
No Change
24%
Decrease
76%
Decrease 76%
No Change 24.2%
Increase <1%
$140,277 Vol.
$140,277 Vol.
Jun 16, 2026
Increase
$41,318 Vol.
1%
No Change
$36,517 Vol.
24%
Decrease
$62,442 Vol.
76%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Brazil’s central bank cut the Selic rate by 25 basis points to 14.50 percent at its late-April Copom meeting, extending the cautious easing cycle that began in March amid moderating GDP growth and resilient yet non-inflationary labor-market conditions. Market-implied odds heavily favor another reduction in June because prior policy transmission is viewed as sufficient to keep inflation on a converging path despite 2026 IPCA expectations holding near 4.9 percent, above the 3 percent target midpoint. Hawkish April minutes, however, stressed data dependence and elevated upside risks from geopolitical oil shocks, leaving room for a pause if incoming releases such as the full April IPCA print show further acceleration. This dynamic anchors the 76 percent implied probability of a decrease while capping no-change odds at roughly one-quarter.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 24, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$140,277Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 24, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Brazil’s central bank cut the Selic rate by 25 basis points to 14.50 percent at its late-April Copom meeting, extending the cautious easing cycle that began in March amid moderating GDP growth and resilient yet non-inflationary labor-market conditions. Market-implied odds heavily favor another reduction in June because prior policy transmission is viewed as sufficient to keep inflation on a converging path despite 2026 IPCA expectations holding near 4.9 percent, above the 3 percent target midpoint. Hawkish April minutes, however, stressed data dependence and elevated upside risks from geopolitical oil shocks, leaving room for a pause if incoming releases such as the full April IPCA print show further acceleration. This dynamic anchors the 76 percent implied probability of a decrease while capping no-change odds at roughly one-quarter.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$140,277Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 24, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Brazil’s central bank cut the Selic rate by 25 basis points to 14.50 percent at its late-April Copom meeting, extending the cautious easing cycle that began in March amid moderating GDP growth and resilient yet non-inflationary labor-market conditions. Market-implied odds heavily favor another reduction in June because prior policy transmission is viewed as sufficient to keep inflation on a converging path despite 2026 IPCA expectations holding near 4.9 percent, above the 3 percent target midpoint. Hawkish April minutes, however, stressed data dependence and elevated upside risks from geopolitical oil shocks, leaving room for a pause if incoming releases such as the full April IPCA print show further acceleration. This dynamic anchors the 76 percent implied probability of a decrease while capping no-change odds at roughly one-quarter.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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