Persistent grey-zone confrontations in the South China Sea, including Chinese coast guard water-cannon incidents, vessel rammings, and floating barriers at Scarborough Shoal during April 2026 Balikatan exercises, have not escalated to direct military engagement. Manila’s military modernization on Thitu Island, expanded joint drills with the United States and allies, and ongoing bilateral talks on maritime tensions have reinforced deterrence while preserving diplomatic off-ramps. ASEAN efforts toward a binding code of conduct further stabilize the environment. These verified developments sustain trader consensus that a full clash remains unlikely before 2027 absent major shifts in posture or unforeseen incidents.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$357,061 Vol.
$357,061 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$357,061 Vol.
$357,061 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Persistent grey-zone confrontations in the South China Sea, including Chinese coast guard water-cannon incidents, vessel rammings, and floating barriers at Scarborough Shoal during April 2026 Balikatan exercises, have not escalated to direct military engagement. Manila’s military modernization on Thitu Island, expanded joint drills with the United States and allies, and ongoing bilateral talks on maritime tensions have reinforced deterrence while preserving diplomatic off-ramps. ASEAN efforts toward a binding code of conduct further stabilize the environment. These verified developments sustain trader consensus that a full clash remains unlikely before 2027 absent major shifts in posture or unforeseen incidents.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ET
Volume
$357,061Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Persistent grey-zone confrontations in the South China Sea, including Chinese coast guard water-cannon incidents, vessel rammings, and floating barriers at Scarborough Shoal during April 2026 Balikatan exercises, have not escalated to direct military engagement. Manila’s military modernization on Thitu Island, expanded joint drills with the United States and allies, and ongoing bilateral talks on maritime tensions have reinforced deterrence while preserving diplomatic off-ramps. ASEAN efforts toward a binding code of conduct further stabilize the environment. These verified developments sustain trader consensus that a full clash remains unlikely before 2027 absent major shifts in posture or unforeseen incidents.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$357,061Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent grey-zone confrontations in the South China Sea, including Chinese coast guard water-cannon incidents, vessel rammings, and floating barriers at Scarborough Shoal during April 2026 Balikatan exercises, have not escalated to direct military engagement. Manila’s military modernization on Thitu Island, expanded joint drills with the United States and allies, and ongoing bilateral talks on maritime tensions have reinforced deterrence while preserving diplomatic off-ramps. ASEAN efforts toward a binding code of conduct further stabilize the environment. These verified developments sustain trader consensus that a full clash remains unlikely before 2027 absent major shifts in posture or unforeseen incidents.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan