**The strong 91% market-implied probability against attributing the November 13 FAA nationwide ground stop to artificial intelligence stems primarily from official statements framing the event as a legacy telecommunications outage.** Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy identified overloaded switches and routers on an outdated network as the cause, while the FAA described communications and radar failures at multiple Air Route Traffic Control Centers. The developer of the recently expanded SMART AI air traffic tool explicitly denied involvement, and no evidence has linked the disruption to the system rolled out just three days earlier. Ongoing DHS and FBI reviews of software updates introduce limited uncertainty, yet the absence of confirmed AI involvement and historical precedent for similar non-AI telecom glitches sustain trader consensus that attribution to the artificial intelligence platform remains unlikely.
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