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Politik·Pemilihan Umum Global

Galway-West By-Election Winner?

icon for Galway-West By-Election Winner?
Politik·Pemilihan Umum Global

Galway-West By-Election Winner?

Noel Thomas 42%

Seán Kyne 31.1%

Mike Cubbard 9.5%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 9.3%

Polymarket

$47,345 Vol.

Noel Thomas 42%

Seán Kyne 31.1%

Mike Cubbard 9.5%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 9.3%

Polymarket

$47,345 Vol.

Sheila Garrity

$20,246 Vol.

1%

Seán Kyne

$4,701 Vol.

31%

Niall Murphy

$1,834 Vol.

<1%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich

$1,654 Vol.

9%

Orla Nugent

$1,680 Vol.

<1%

Helen Ogbu

$3,933 Vol.

4%

Denman Rooke

$1,612 Vol.

1%

Noel Thomas

$5,057 Vol.

47%

Thomas Welby

$1,697 Vol.

<1%

Mike Cubbard

$2,421 Vol.

9%

Mark Lohan

$2,509 Vol.

4%

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Noel Thomas of Independent Ireland leads trader consensus in the Galway West by-election with a 46.5% implied probability, reflecting sustained independent momentum and voter focus on local issues such as cost of living and fuel protests ahead of the May 22 vote to fill the vacancy created by Catherine Connolly’s presidential election. Seán Kyne of Fine Gael follows at 31.1%, supported by his record as a former TD and senator plus early campaign visibility, though no government candidate has won an Irish by-election since 2014. Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich of the Social Democrats and Helen Ogbu of Labour sit at 9.7% and 4.1% respectively, buoyed by left-leaning transfers in a multi-candidate field, while lower-polling independents like Mike Cubbard trail due to limited name recognition. Recent Irish Times/TG4 polling showed Kyne and Thomas nearly tied on first preferences, underscoring how second-preference flows under single transferable vote will likely decide the outcome in this fragmented race.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$47,345
Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 31, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Noel Thomas of Independent Ireland leads trader consensus in the Galway West by-election with a 46.5% implied probability, reflecting sustained independent momentum and voter focus on local issues such as cost of living and fuel protests ahead of the May 22 vote to fill the vacancy created by Catherine Connolly’s presidential election. Seán Kyne of Fine Gael follows at 31.1%, supported by his record as a former TD and senator plus early campaign visibility, though no government candidate has won an Irish by-election since 2014. Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich of the Social Democrats and Helen Ogbu of Labour sit at 9.7% and 4.1% respectively, buoyed by left-leaning transfers in a multi-candidate field, while lower-polling independents like Mike Cubbard trail due to limited name recognition. Recent Irish Times/TG4 polling showed Kyne and Thomas nearly tied on first preferences, underscoring how second-preference flows under single transferable vote will likely decide the outcome in this fragmented race.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$47,345
Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 31, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Galway-West By-Election Winner?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 11 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Noel Thomas" di 47%, diikuti oleh "Seán Kyne" di 31%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 47¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 47% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Galway-West By-Election Winner?" telah menghasilkan $47.3K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Feb 26, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Galway-West By-Election Winner?," jelajahi 11 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Galway-West By-Election Winner?" adalah "Noel Thomas" di 47%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 47% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Seán Kyne" di 31%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Galway-West By-Election Winner?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.