xAI’s repeated delays for Grok 5—originally targeted for late 2025, then Q1 and Q2 2026—have shaped trader sentiment, with the model still in training on the expanding Colossus 2 cluster as of late August 2026. Confirmed training began after the January 2026 Series E announcement, yet xAI instead shipped Grok 4.5 in July and teased rapid 4.6/4.7 updates in August, diverting focus from the flagship. The current internal target of a pre-year-end release, combined with 6–10 trillion parameter MoE variants and multimodal training on massive compute, supports market-implied odds favoring completion by December 2026 while highlighting risks of further slips from post-training evaluation and infrastructure scaling.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiBARU
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
<1%
October 31
18%
November 30
22%
December 31
70%
$8,565 Vol.
August 31
$3,541 Vol.
<1%
October 31
$1,769 Vol.
18%
November 30
$21 Vol.
22%
December 31
$1,711 Vol.
70%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI’s repeated delays for Grok 5—originally targeted for late 2025, then Q1 and Q2 2026—have shaped trader sentiment, with the model still in training on the expanding Colossus 2 cluster as of late August 2026. Confirmed training began after the January 2026 Series E announcement, yet xAI instead shipped Grok 4.5 in July and teased rapid 4.6/4.7 updates in August, diverting focus from the flagship. The current internal target of a pre-year-end release, combined with 6–10 trillion parameter MoE variants and multimodal training on massive compute, supports market-implied odds favoring completion by December 2026 while highlighting risks of further slips from post-training evaluation and infrastructure scaling.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Volume
$8,565Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI’s repeated delays for Grok 5—originally targeted for late 2025, then Q1 and Q2 2026—have shaped trader sentiment, with the model still in training on the expanding Colossus 2 cluster as of late August 2026. Confirmed training began after the January 2026 Series E announcement, yet xAI instead shipped Grok 4.5 in July and teased rapid 4.6/4.7 updates in August, diverting focus from the flagship. The current internal target of a pre-year-end release, combined with 6–10 trillion parameter MoE variants and multimodal training on massive compute, supports market-implied odds favoring completion by December 2026 while highlighting risks of further slips from post-training evaluation and infrastructure scaling.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$8,565Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...xAI’s repeated delays for Grok 5—originally targeted for late 2025, then Q1 and Q2 2026—have shaped trader sentiment, with the model still in training on the expanding Colossus 2 cluster as of late August 2026. Confirmed training began after the January 2026 Series E announcement, yet xAI instead shipped Grok 4.5 in July and teased rapid 4.6/4.7 updates in August, diverting focus from the flagship. The current internal target of a pre-year-end release, combined with 6–10 trillion parameter MoE variants and multimodal training on massive compute, supports market-implied odds favoring completion by December 2026 while highlighting risks of further slips from post-training evaluation and infrastructure scaling.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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