xAI's Grok 5 remains in training on the expanded Colossus 2 supercluster as of late August 2026, with all prior targets (late 2025, Q1, and Q2 2026) missed amid infrastructure scaling and post-training work. The most recent confirmed signal came during an August 2026 SpaceX earnings call, where Elon Musk reiterated a release before year-end while incorporating SpaceX engineering data, following the July launch of Grok 4.5 and near-term plans for 4.6 and 4.7 iterations. Traders assign the highest implied probability to a December 31 window, reflecting xAI's pattern of rapid but sequential model updates, the absence of any public benchmark or release date, and competitive pressure from other labs shipping frontier models. Key swing factors include training completion timelines on multi-trillion-parameter Mixture-of-Experts variants and any surprise acceleration in fine-tuning or deployment.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiBARU
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
<1%
October 31
18%
November 30
52%
December 31
68%
$8,565 Vol.
August 31
$3,541 Vol.
<1%
October 31
$1,769 Vol.
18%
November 30
$21 Vol.
52%
December 31
$1,711 Vol.
68%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI's Grok 5 remains in training on the expanded Colossus 2 supercluster as of late August 2026, with all prior targets (late 2025, Q1, and Q2 2026) missed amid infrastructure scaling and post-training work. The most recent confirmed signal came during an August 2026 SpaceX earnings call, where Elon Musk reiterated a release before year-end while incorporating SpaceX engineering data, following the July launch of Grok 4.5 and near-term plans for 4.6 and 4.7 iterations. Traders assign the highest implied probability to a December 31 window, reflecting xAI's pattern of rapid but sequential model updates, the absence of any public benchmark or release date, and competitive pressure from other labs shipping frontier models. Key swing factors include training completion timelines on multi-trillion-parameter Mixture-of-Experts variants and any surprise acceleration in fine-tuning or deployment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Volume
$8,565Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI's Grok 5 remains in training on the expanded Colossus 2 supercluster as of late August 2026, with all prior targets (late 2025, Q1, and Q2 2026) missed amid infrastructure scaling and post-training work. The most recent confirmed signal came during an August 2026 SpaceX earnings call, where Elon Musk reiterated a release before year-end while incorporating SpaceX engineering data, following the July launch of Grok 4.5 and near-term plans for 4.6 and 4.7 iterations. Traders assign the highest implied probability to a December 31 window, reflecting xAI's pattern of rapid but sequential model updates, the absence of any public benchmark or release date, and competitive pressure from other labs shipping frontier models. Key swing factors include training completion timelines on multi-trillion-parameter Mixture-of-Experts variants and any surprise acceleration in fine-tuning or deployment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$8,565Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...xAI's Grok 5 remains in training on the expanded Colossus 2 supercluster as of late August 2026, with all prior targets (late 2025, Q1, and Q2 2026) missed amid infrastructure scaling and post-training work. The most recent confirmed signal came during an August 2026 SpaceX earnings call, where Elon Musk reiterated a release before year-end while incorporating SpaceX engineering data, following the July launch of Grok 4.5 and near-term plans for 4.6 and 4.7 iterations. Traders assign the highest implied probability to a December 31 window, reflecting xAI's pattern of rapid but sequential model updates, the absence of any public benchmark or release date, and competitive pressure from other labs shipping frontier models. Key swing factors include training completion timelines on multi-trillion-parameter Mixture-of-Experts variants and any surprise acceleration in fine-tuning or deployment.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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