Google Gemini models currently trail the HLE leaderboard, with Gemini 3.1 Pro and recent Flash variants posting 45-48% on text-only or no-tools evaluations while Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 lead near 65%. Trader consensus, reflected in market-implied odds, views a 50%+ Gemini score by year-end as likely but assigns lower probability to 55% or higher. Recent Gemini 3-series releases have driven incremental gains in multi-step reasoning and specialized knowledge across math, physics, and other domains, yet the 2,500-question benchmark—designed to resist saturation—continues to expose gaps versus frontier competitors. Key catalysts ahead include ongoing Gemini 4 pre-training, additional Flash iterations targeting agentic capabilities, and any late-2026 model updates that could close the gap before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$90,069 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
50%+
91%
55%+
37%
60%+
21%
65%+
12%
70%+
4%
$90,069 Vol.
50%+
$30,511 Vol.
91%
55%+
$34,274 Vol.
37%
60%+
$15,671 Vol.
21%
65%+
$5,256 Vol.
12%
70%+
$4,358 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Google Gemini models currently trail the HLE leaderboard, with Gemini 3.1 Pro and recent Flash variants posting 45-48% on text-only or no-tools evaluations while Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 lead near 65%. Trader consensus, reflected in market-implied odds, views a 50%+ Gemini score by year-end as likely but assigns lower probability to 55% or higher. Recent Gemini 3-series releases have driven incremental gains in multi-step reasoning and specialized knowledge across math, physics, and other domains, yet the 2,500-question benchmark—designed to resist saturation—continues to expose gaps versus frontier competitors. Key catalysts ahead include ongoing Gemini 4 pre-training, additional Flash iterations targeting agentic capabilities, and any late-2026 model updates that could close the gap before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ET
Volume
$90,069Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Google Gemini models currently trail the HLE leaderboard, with Gemini 3.1 Pro and recent Flash variants posting 45-48% on text-only or no-tools evaluations while Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 lead near 65%. Trader consensus, reflected in market-implied odds, views a 50%+ Gemini score by year-end as likely but assigns lower probability to 55% or higher. Recent Gemini 3-series releases have driven incremental gains in multi-step reasoning and specialized knowledge across math, physics, and other domains, yet the 2,500-question benchmark—designed to resist saturation—continues to expose gaps versus frontier competitors. Key catalysts ahead include ongoing Gemini 4 pre-training, additional Flash iterations targeting agentic capabilities, and any late-2026 model updates that could close the gap before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$90,069Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Google Gemini models currently trail the HLE leaderboard, with Gemini 3.1 Pro and recent Flash variants posting 45-48% on text-only or no-tools evaluations while Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 lead near 65%. Trader consensus, reflected in market-implied odds, views a 50%+ Gemini score by year-end as likely but assigns lower probability to 55% or higher. Recent Gemini 3-series releases have driven incremental gains in multi-step reasoning and specialized knowledge across math, physics, and other domains, yet the 2,500-question benchmark—designed to resist saturation—continues to expose gaps versus frontier competitors. Key catalysts ahead include ongoing Gemini 4 pre-training, additional Flash iterations targeting agentic capabilities, and any late-2026 model updates that could close the gap before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan