**Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and related Opus/Mythos 5 variants currently lead Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 59–65% (Artificial Analysis and BenchLM snapshots as of mid-September 2026), while the strongest publicly reported Grok 4.6 scores sit near 42–43%.** Earlier 2025 Grok 4 releases posted roughly 25% closed-book and up to ~44–50% with tools or multi-agent setups, but xAI has not yet matched the top Anthropic or OpenAI configurations on the expert-authored 2,500-question benchmark. Trader focus centers on whether xAI’s ongoing larger training runs (including the recently referenced 2.5T+ Grok 4.8) and continued iteration through Q4 can push a Grok variant into the low-to-mid 50s or higher before year-end, especially on HLE-Rolling variants that incorporate community feedback. Key swing factors include the exact evaluation protocol (tools vs. closed-book, text-only vs. multimodal) and any late-year model releases or verified submissions.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$119,543 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
45%+
81%
50%+
41%
55%+
31%
60%+
19%
65%+
4%
$119,543 Vol.
45%+
$44,627 Vol.
81%
50%+
$25,068 Vol.
41%
55%+
$29,262 Vol.
31%
60%+
$17,653 Vol.
19%
65%+
$2,934 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".**Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and related Opus/Mythos 5 variants currently lead Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 59–65% (Artificial Analysis and BenchLM snapshots as of mid-September 2026), while the strongest publicly reported Grok 4.6 scores sit near 42–43%.** Earlier 2025 Grok 4 releases posted roughly 25% closed-book and up to ~44–50% with tools or multi-agent setups, but xAI has not yet matched the top Anthropic or OpenAI configurations on the expert-authored 2,500-question benchmark. Trader focus centers on whether xAI’s ongoing larger training runs (including the recently referenced 2.5T+ Grok 4.8) and continued iteration through Q4 can push a Grok variant into the low-to-mid 50s or higher before year-end, especially on HLE-Rolling variants that incorporate community feedback. Key swing factors include the exact evaluation protocol (tools vs. closed-book, text-only vs. multimodal) and any late-year model releases or verified submissions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volume
$119,543Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".**Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and related Opus/Mythos 5 variants currently lead Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 59–65% (Artificial Analysis and BenchLM snapshots as of mid-September 2026), while the strongest publicly reported Grok 4.6 scores sit near 42–43%.** Earlier 2025 Grok 4 releases posted roughly 25% closed-book and up to ~44–50% with tools or multi-agent setups, but xAI has not yet matched the top Anthropic or OpenAI configurations on the expert-authored 2,500-question benchmark. Trader focus centers on whether xAI’s ongoing larger training runs (including the recently referenced 2.5T+ Grok 4.8) and continued iteration through Q4 can push a Grok variant into the low-to-mid 50s or higher before year-end, especially on HLE-Rolling variants that incorporate community feedback. Key swing factors include the exact evaluation protocol (tools vs. closed-book, text-only vs. multimodal) and any late-year model releases or verified submissions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$119,543Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...**Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and related Opus/Mythos 5 variants currently lead Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 59–65% (Artificial Analysis and BenchLM snapshots as of mid-September 2026), while the strongest publicly reported Grok 4.6 scores sit near 42–43%.** Earlier 2025 Grok 4 releases posted roughly 25% closed-book and up to ~44–50% with tools or multi-agent setups, but xAI has not yet matched the top Anthropic or OpenAI configurations on the expert-authored 2,500-question benchmark. Trader focus centers on whether xAI’s ongoing larger training runs (including the recently referenced 2.5T+ Grok 4.8) and continued iteration through Q4 can push a Grok variant into the low-to-mid 50s or higher before year-end, especially on HLE-Rolling variants that incorporate community feedback. Key swing factors include the exact evaluation protocol (tools vs. closed-book, text-only vs. multimodal) and any late-year model releases or verified submissions.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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