Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weights model with a 1-million-token context window and native vision, drives current trader sentiment on the Polymarket. It has posted scores in the mid-to-high 40s percent on Humanity’s Last Exam without tools and up to 56 percent with tool use, placing it behind Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants on multiple leaderboards. Ongoing fine-tuning, agentic workflows, and community contributions enabled by the open release could push scores higher before year-end, while competitive pressure from GPT-5 series and Gemini updates adds uncertainty. Key catalysts include additional optimization releases, expanded tool integration, and any new Moonshot models that could shift the highest achievable Kimi score on the expert-level benchmark.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$63,309 Vol.
45%+
84%
50%+
30%
55%+
19%
60%+
11%
65%+
7%
$63,309 Vol.
45%+
84%
50%+
30%
55%+
19%
60%+
11%
65%+
7%
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ET
Sumber Resolusi
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Sumber Resolusi
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weights model with a 1-million-token context window and native vision, drives current trader sentiment on the Polymarket. It has posted scores in the mid-to-high 40s percent on Humanity’s Last Exam without tools and up to 56 percent with tool use, placing it behind Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants on multiple leaderboards. Ongoing fine-tuning, agentic workflows, and community contributions enabled by the open release could push scores higher before year-end, while competitive pressure from GPT-5 series and Gemini updates adds uncertainty. Key catalysts include additional optimization releases, expanded tool integration, and any new Moonshot models that could shift the highest achievable Kimi score on the expert-level benchmark.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui



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