Moonshot AI’s July 2026 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-weight model drives current trader sentiment, with reported HLE scores reaching 56% on leading public leaderboards and 46.9% on others, placing it among the strongest open models behind Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants. The model’s large context window, multimodal support, and agentic tool-use optimizations have enabled incremental gains over prior Kimi releases, though the 2,500-question expert benchmark remains far from saturated. Further fine-tuning, new agent variants, or year-end updates could lift results before December 31, while the gap to proprietary frontier systems highlights the difficulty of closing remaining headroom on this evaluation.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$63,573 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
45%+
85%
50%+
30%
55%+
19%
60%+
11%
65%+
7%
$63,573 Vol.
45%+
$15,400 Vol.
85%
50%+
$24,802 Vol.
30%
55%+
$11,805 Vol.
19%
60%+
$9,733 Vol.
11%
65%+
$1,832 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Moonshot AI’s July 2026 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-weight model drives current trader sentiment, with reported HLE scores reaching 56% on leading public leaderboards and 46.9% on others, placing it among the strongest open models behind Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants. The model’s large context window, multimodal support, and agentic tool-use optimizations have enabled incremental gains over prior Kimi releases, though the 2,500-question expert benchmark remains far from saturated. Further fine-tuning, new agent variants, or year-end updates could lift results before December 31, while the gap to proprietary frontier systems highlights the difficulty of closing remaining headroom on this evaluation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$63,573Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Moonshot AI’s July 2026 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-weight model drives current trader sentiment, with reported HLE scores reaching 56% on leading public leaderboards and 46.9% on others, placing it among the strongest open models behind Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants. The model’s large context window, multimodal support, and agentic tool-use optimizations have enabled incremental gains over prior Kimi releases, though the 2,500-question expert benchmark remains far from saturated. Further fine-tuning, new agent variants, or year-end updates could lift results before December 31, while the gap to proprietary frontier systems highlights the difficulty of closing remaining headroom on this evaluation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$63,573Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI’s July 2026 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-weight model drives current trader sentiment, with reported HLE scores reaching 56% on leading public leaderboards and 46.9% on others, placing it among the strongest open models behind Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants. The model’s large context window, multimodal support, and agentic tool-use optimizations have enabled incremental gains over prior Kimi releases, though the 2,500-question expert benchmark remains far from saturated. Further fine-tuning, new agent variants, or year-end updates could lift results before December 31, while the gap to proprietary frontier systems highlights the difficulty of closing remaining headroom on this evaluation.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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